MiGs in Estonia: how will this affect the course of the war?
A still photo published by Swedish armed forces that it says shows a Russian mig-31 fighter jet that took part in the violation of Estonian airspace. Swedens military says the image was taken over the Baltic sea after the Russian aircraft left Estonian airspace, still photo released on September 19, 2025. Swedish Armed forces/Handout via REUTERS. THIS IMAGE HAS BEEN SUPPLIED BY A THIRD PARTY. MANDATORY CREDIT. NO RESALES. NO ARCHIVES Reuters was also able to confirm the aircrafts seen in the pictures as Russian MiG-31 fighter jets from the design which matched file imagery. Reuters was not able to independently verify the location or the date the photos were taken.
Source: Author’s Facebook page
From Putin’s point of view, pressure on Europe is the main way to get Ukraine out of Donbas. And therefore provocations will be regular.
1. The end of the war in Putin’s logic involves the following points:
– Complete occupation of Donbas;
– Completion, at least in the main parameters, of the formation of Cheburnet, as the main, from the point of view of the Kremlin’s internal services, safeguard against further revolutions.
– Partial lifting of sanctions and the beginning of political dialogue with the West.
2. The main obstacle, from the Kremlin’s point of view, to the seizure of Donbas is Europe. After all, it is the EU that is currently the main obstacle to lifting sanctions against the Russian Federation. But here we must understand that for Europe, which declares the primacy of values over everything else, the answers to two questions are important:
– How will Europe’s long-term security be ensured?
– Parameters of further economic costs associated with new geopolitical realities (the EU does not want to be an eternal cash cow).
3. I have already written: once the EU understands the answers to these questions, their view on Ukraine may begin to change. And Rossi believes that attacks on Poland or Estonia will accelerate this process (whether this is really so – the answer is not yet obvious).
4. The main mistake of the Russians is that the US is not yet ready to answer these questions, because in Trump’s logic, he should do nothing, and everyone should pay for his inaction.
5. That is why we have a stalemate now. Europe is afraid, the US does not want to, and Russia can do nothing but provocations. China traditionally waits.
6. The situation can change only when one of the parties changes its position. This will happen. But not now and for now it is very difficult to predict which of the four players will be the first to upset this balance (I believe that the least realistic is the start of a military operation by Russia, and the most realistic is the game of China).
7. At the same time, there is no need to worry about stopping EU aid to Ukraine yet. Why? Read point 3.
Estonia said on Tuesday that three Russian MiG-31 fighter jets had entered its airspace without permission and remained there for 12 minutes. The country’s Foreign Ministry has already summoned the Russian chargé d’affaires to protest and hand over a note regarding the incident that occurred on September 19 over the Gulf of Finland.
Earlier it was reported that Estonia is actively strengthening its eastern border with Russia : an anti-tank ditch is already being built, and hundreds of bunkers are planned. Meanwhile, the opposition party Isamaa called for the complete closure of the border with Russia, explaining this by the increased security risks against the background of joint military exercises between Russia and Belarus.
Also follow “Pryamim” on Facebook , Twitter , Telegram , and Instagram.
• Materials published in the “OPINIONS” section reflect the opinion of the author of the publication, who bears full responsibility for the accuracy of the information.
• The editorial staff of prm.ua may not share the opinions expressed in the author’s material.
• The owner of the webpage in the “OPINIONS” section is the author of the publication.