Missiles, Proxies, and the “Axis of Evil”: Is Iran Already at War with Ukraine?

The other day, Ebrahim Azizi, head of Iran’s parliamentary National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, openly declared that Ukraine had turned itself into a “legitimate target” by providing drone-related assistance.

“By providing unmanned support to the Israeli regime, Ukraine has effectively become a participant in the war and, in accordance with Article 51 of the UN Charter, has turned its entire territory into a legitimate target for Iran,” he said.

I believe that such statements should not be taken lightly, since Iran has missile reserves.

At one time, Iran gained access to Chinese missile technology through the supply of CSS-8 missiles, a modified copy of the Soviet solid-fuel unguided rocket of the Luna-M complex.

But the beginning of the Iranian missile program can be considered the mid-80s of the last century. Then, in 1985, Iran managed to purchase R-17 missiles of the Elbrus complex, better known as Scud, from Libya. In addition, Scuds were purchased from the DPRK, which received them from Egypt in the 70s and localized them under the name Nodon in the mid-80s.

According to experts, all Iranian missiles are based primarily on two sources: the Soviet R-17 (Scud) and the 9M21 (Luna-M). Not only Iranian specialists but also experts from the DPRK have been involved in the modernization and development of derivative versions. It is worth noting that in 2006, the United States officially accused China Great Wall Industry Corporation of assisting in the development of Fateh missiles.

Iran’s missile program is currently considered one of the most advanced. Moreover, its strike range extends from 300 to 2,500 kilometers. This includes missile systems such as the Fateh-110 and Zolfaghar, among others. In other words, the capability is there.
According to American intelligence, Iran may have over 3,000 ballistic missiles of various types, while the number of cruise missiles is much higher.

On March 15, 2022, the commander of US Central Command (CENTCOM), General Kenneth McKenzie, stated that Iran has more than 3,000 ballistic missiles.

“On a military level, my primary concern is that they don’t have nuclear weapons, but I’m also very concerned about the significant growth and effectiveness of their ballistic missile program,” McKenzie told the Senate Armed Services Committee.

In a previously written statement, McKenzie described Iran’s missile forces as the greatest threat to regional security and noted that Iran has developed and repeatedly tested an arsenal of ballistic missiles capable of delivering nuclear warheads. He told the committee that Iran has invested significantly in its ballistic missile program over the past 5-7 years.

So far, Iran has fired, according to various estimates, approximately 1,000-1,200 missiles at the Persian Gulf countries and Israel.

Plus, destroyed by United States and Israeli aviation, approximately the same number. But, in any case, there is a certain stock of ballistic missiles. It is worth noting that Iran managed to scale up the production of missiles through its proxies. These are Hamas and Hezbollah. Moreover, the production was located practically next to Israel. The weapons are located in tunnels. It is worth noting, moreover, that even the IDF ground operation managed to eliminate no more than 40% of these underground tunnels and, consequently, the associated weapons production facilities.
In addition, Iran may receive assistance within the framework of the “axis of evil.”

It is worth noting that there was an exchange of technologies with the occupying country. Iran, accordingly, transferred UAV production technologies. Its specialists also acted as instructors and leading engineers during the construction of factories in Izhevsk and Yelabuga. And the Russians transferred missile technologies to Iran.
One of Iran’s latest developments is the medium-range ballistic missile, the “Khaibar-Shekan.” Equipped with a 500-kilogram warhead and a range of 1,450 kilometers, it is, according to the manufacturer, highly maneuverable — a feature that significantly increases its chances of evading air defense systems. However, it has not yet been tested in combat conditions.
The longest-range Iranian missile is currently believed to be the liquid-fueled Khorramshahr. It is named after the city of Khorramshahr and is a medium-range ballistic missile that Iran tested in January 2017. The Khorramshahr has a claimed warhead weight of 1,800 kilograms and a range of 2,000 kilometers. And, if a smaller warhead is used, the missile could likely fly as far as 3,000 kilometers.

For other ballistic missiles, such as the Emad, Ghadr, and Sejjil, warhead weights range from 750 to 850 kilograms, with ranges of 1,700 to 2,000 kilometers, respectively.

The distance as the crow flies between the southern regions of Ukraine and the northern regions of Iran is approximately 1,450–1,500 kilometers. The shortest route runs through the Black Sea and the territories of Georgia and Armenia.

Therefore, the potential threat and the possibility of a strike on the territory of Ukraine cannot be ruled out, given the fact that Ukraine has sent its specialists to four Persian Gulf countries to neutralize Iranian weapons.

Therefore, given the geography of the Iranian side’s strikes, this scenario looks plausible. But this raises the question of whether Ukraine has the moral right to ask its partners, as a preventive measure, to strengthen its air defense system. First of all, in terms of protection against ballistic missiles, which is the main element of the Iranian missile program.

Let me remind you that the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry compared Iran’s threats against Ukraine to the behavior of a serial killer who justifies his crimes.

Foreign Ministry spokesman Georgy Tykhyi recalled that the Iranian regime has been supporting the killings of Ukrainians for years, directly providing Russia with drones and technology for aggression against Ukraine.

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