Musk holds the lever of influence on the front: what will happen if Starlink disappears

The Ukrainian army’s dependence on Starlink remains a serious risk. If Elon Musk completely restricts access to the system, the military may lose an important communication channel and the ability to control some of its drones. There is no full-fledged alternative to Starlink yet, and switching to the Starshield military system will be much more expensive.

The Atlantic writes about this, analyzing the role of Musk’s companies in the war and the risks for Ukraine due to dependence on his satellite technologies.

In mid-October, restrictions on Starlink operations in Ukraine led to the suspension of drone flights and the interruption of military operations. The publication warns that a complete shutdown of the system would have much more serious consequences for the Ukrainian army.

At the start of the full-scale invasion, Musk handed over thousands of Starlink terminals to Ukraine. At first, they were used in hospitals, power plants, and government agencies, but the system later became a vital part of military communications. According to The Atlantic, there are more than 250,000 terminals operating in the war zone, most of them regular Starlink devices.

“They’re using Starlink for everything. Drones, troop control, tactical communications on the battlefield,” a senior US military official told the publication.

An alternative could be the Starshield system, which SpaceX created for military and government customers. However, it is much more expensive than the usual Starlink. Maintenance of a standard terminal costs about $ 30 per month, while Starshield can cost up to $ 25 thousand per terminal. In addition, there are not enough Starshield devices available to Ukraine: they account for less than 1% of terminals in the combat zone.

An example of how the cost of such services can change is the US military operation related to Iran. In the spring, SpaceX raised the price of Starshield in the region from about $5,000 to $25,000 per month per terminal, and the Pentagon agreed to pay more. The authors of The Atlantic suggest that restrictions on military use of Starlink could push Ukraine and its partners to switch to the more expensive system. At the same time, the publication does not provide evidence that Musk already has such an intention.

Europe is developing its own satellite systems, but has not yet created a full-fledged replacement for Starlink. This leaves Ukraine dependent on the solutions of a private company, and it will be difficult to quickly replace its satellite communications in the event of a prolonged outage.

It was previously reported that US Democratic Senator Richard Blumenthal has launched an investigation into Ukraine’s loss of access to the Starshield military satellite system used by the Pentagon. He wants to find out who made the decision to limit the service and whether the US Department of Defense has alternatives in case SpaceX services become unavailable.

It should be noted that the day before, US President Donald Trump said that SpaceX founder Elon Musk had restored access to the Starlink satellite system for Ukraine.

As is known, US Republican Senator Tom Tillis is demanding an investigation into the problems with the Starshield military satellite communications system, which caused the Ukrainian military to face limitations in the system’s operation . He plans to ask the Inspector General of the US Department of Defense to conduct an inspection and report to Congress and the American public.

Recall that on the night of Wednesday, October 14, Starlink terminals began to lose communication while traveling at speeds over 160 km/h . This, according to preliminary data, disrupted a number of important missions. At the same time, conventional satellite communication terminals continue to operate.

Later, Serhiy Beskrestnov, known by the call sign “Flash”, stated that SpaceX had introduced speed limits for Starlink terminals while in motion . Because of this, the Ukrainian Defense Forces were unable to complete a number of important missions.

At the same time, the 7th Airborne Assault Corps reported that problems arose even at lower speeds. In particular, in the Hulyaipil direction , communication with drones could be lost for 10–20 seconds while flying at a speed of 110–120 km/h.

As reported in the evening of the same day , Ukraine began to resume Starlink operations at speeds of up to 160 km/h . Thanks to this, the Ukrainian military will again be able to use strike drones and interceptor drones, the work of which was complicated by recent restrictions.

By the way, the administration of US President Donald Trump denies involvement in the restrictions on Starlink operations in Ukraine . Washington said it would contact SpaceX to find out the causes of the problems.

As of the morning of October 24, the Defense Forces and specialists of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine recorded the operation of Starlink/Starshield at a speed of over 400 km/h . The department also confirmed the stability of the connection.

SpaceX founder Elon Musk said the Ukrainian military violated the terms of use of the Starlink satellite network by using it for drone strikes . According to him, the company eliminated the possibility of such use of the network last week.

In addition, Elon Musk again criticized Ukraine for using Starlink satellite communications for military operations and called for sympathy for the Russian military. He stated that the deaths of Ukrainians and Russians must stop, and Russian conscripts allegedly have no choice but to fight.

On October 29, it became known that the Pentagon’s oversight body will not conduct an investigation into the restrictions on the work of Starlink and Starshield for Ukraine, at the request of a group of US senators from both parties . Instead, it recommended that the issue be referred to the US Air Force. This decision has caused concern among lawmakers who insist on an independent review of the circumstances of the communication disruptions.

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