Myrnograd at stake: fraud involving ISW analyst brought in millions

On November 15, users of the gaming platform Polymarket placed bets on whether Myrnograd, Donetsk Oblast, would be occupied by nightfall. Bets on the “impossible” brought individual investors profits of up to 33,000%, even though the city was controlled by Ukrainian forces.

This was reported on December 11 in the online edition of the American think tank Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft.

It is noted that the fraud was made possible by unauthorized editing of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) map. Before determining the results of the bets, an ISW analyst changed the front map so that the occupiers controlled a key intersection in Myrnograd. In reality, there was no such progress. The next morning, the changes mysteriously disappeared, and payments to players had already been made.

On November 17, ISW published a statement about “unauthorized editing of the interactive map of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine” on the night of November 15-16. The data was deleted before the start of the working day, and the name of the analyst who made the changes was later removed from the portal. According to sources, he was fired, there is no official confirmation.

Polymarket users were outraged by the scam. One said ISW had “lost its reputation.” The total amount of bets on the occupation of the Ukrainian city reached $1.3 million. Meanwhile, on social media, those who complained were criticized for participating in betting on war.

ISW representatives emphasized that their data is not intended for gambling, but only for use by lawmakers, the military, and reputable media. There are no legal consequences for betting on fights.

As users report, this is not the first time: previously, ISW allegedly entered incorrect data regarding the seizure of the railway in Kupyansk on October 29, which also became the basis for speculation at the rates.

As previously reported, the difficult situation remains on the Pokrovsk-Mirnograd line, where the enemy is conducting 32.5% of all attacks. Russian forces have advanced 35 sq km in the Pokrovsk area and 21.5 sq km near Mirnograd . These 56.5 sq km represent only 11% of the total November gain, but it is here that the heaviest fighting continues.

Recall, the Ukrainian military, defending Myrnograd in the Pokrovsky direction, stated that the city is surrounded.

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