Northern threat: is Russia really preparing a new offensive from Belarus?

Military experts currently do not observe a critical accumulation of enemy forces necessary for a large-scale operation from the territory of Belarus. The implementation of an offensive today looks extremely difficult due to the changing nature of the war.

Thus, during a discussion on the air of “Pryamoye” of the current situation on the border with Belarus, political strategist Oleksiy Golobutsky commented on statements about a possible attack from the northern direction.

“You can’t just take it and attack it. You need to concentrate troops, equipment, and training. That is, it won’t go completely unnoticed,” he noted.

Golobutsky stressed that similar scenarios are discussed every year, but the implementation of such an offensive today looks extremely difficult due to the changing nature of the war. In his opinion, any open column of equipment will be promptly eliminated by the defenders.

In addition, the political strategist believes that the self-proclaimed leader of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, is aware of the catastrophic consequences for his own economy in the event of direct entry into the conflict. Golobutsky also suggested that the activation of this topic could be used to distract society’s attention from internal information problems.

Recall that, according to the military, Russia is considering several scenarios for new offensive operations in the Chernihiv-Kyiv direction, which may begin no earlier than the fall of 2026. To this end, the Kremlin plans to conduct a new wave of mobilization of 100,000 people.

Meanwhile , Russia and Belarus completed joint nuclear exercises on May 21, which included ammunition deliveries, missile launches, and missile transfers. The Institute for the Study of War believes this demonstrates Russia’s influence over Belarus and the country’s potential involvement in future Russian military operations.

Earlier, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky held a meeting with the heads of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the General Directorate of the Ministry of Defense, the Central Military District of the Ukrainian SSR, and the Security Service of Ukraine regarding the security situation and Russia’s actions. They discussed Russia’s attempts to increase Belarus’ involvement in the war against Ukraine and possible threats in certain areas. The head of state also previously stated about “specific activity” on the part of Belarus on sections of the Ukrainian border.

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