“Penza case”: what will the autumn mobilization in Russia be like?

Source: Author’s Facebook page

Many people ask me what the possible Russian mobilization will be this fall. Now I have an exact answer to this question.

Look at the events in Penza. Russian media, for example, “Dozhd” reports that in Penza, “busification” has begun to be carried out by people in civilian clothes. Not the military, not the police, but hired people in civilian clothes who catch people on the streets or even drag them out of their own homes, force them into minibuses, and later the “busified” ones end up at the front in Ukraine.

The “signing of the contract” takes place at the military registration and enlistment office, and the minibuses have state license plates that indicate their affiliation with local administrations.

But any complaints to or against these structures remain unanswered. Who to complain to? A stranger in plainclothes who called himself a police inspector, lured you out of your apartment, and then you were ganged up on by a crowd of “sportsmen”. Who are these people? How can you prove that they are acting on behalf of the state and have actually kidnapped you? No way.

That is, Penza is currently working on the beloved Russian model of “we’re not there,” but now it concerns the covert mobilization of its own citizens for war.

In fact, it’s very convenient. Some men grab people on the streets, throw them into buses, and take them to military registration and enlistment offices. There, under physical pressure, they force them to sign a contract, after which the person ends up at the front. No summonses and no payments. That’s how the “Penza case” works.

If the experience is recognized as successful, and no loud protests have been observed in Penza so far, this practice will be extended to other regions of Russia.

This will happen after the elections. They are, in fact, parliamentary. But Putin has made himself the face of the election campaign of the United Russia party. In fact, this is not an election, but a referendum on the continuation of the war. And war is mobilization. If the results suit Putin (there is little doubt that the calculation will be “correct”), the Kremlin will consider that the indulgence has been obtained.

According to this model, you can recruit 300,000 or 500,000 soldiers. It is cheaper to pay bandits who will catch people on the streets than millions for a voluntary contract. In this way, mobilization will be cheaper, biomass will be recruited, and the state will somehow not get tired.

Will there be any reaction from ordinary Russians? I don’t know. Will such an army be effective? No, it won’t be. But will it be dangerous? Yes, it will be. In a situation where you either kill or be killed, the choice is obvious. Especially if your family is being held hostage at home.

Earlier, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that Russia is preparing for a new wave of mobilization after the State Duma elections, which are scheduled to be held on September 21. According to him, the Kremlin plans to call up from 300 to 500 thousand people.

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