“Physics for Dreamers”: Is it realistic to produce 20 million drones per year?

Source: Author’s Facebook page

Oh, another “physics for dreamers” now from the Ministry of Defense: 20 million drones per year – “if partners give money.” Will we make it from a billion trees? Okay, let’s count without forests and fairies:

20 million/year = ~66,700 pieces per day (we assume 300 working days). For two shifts — ~33,300 per shift. One FPV assembler in real life makes ≈6 pieces per shift (with assembly, firmware, calibration). So, we need ~5,600 jobs on the line each shift, that is, about 11,000 in the final assembly. Add electronics, engines, batteries, propellers, optics, electronic warfare tests, quality control, logistics, service – multiply by at least five: we get an order of 50-60 thousand people in the production circuit. This is not “IT guys in the basement”, this is a real city.

Area. One workplace with aisles, a test area, and packaging requires ~10 m². For 5,600 posts – ~56 thousand m². Plus warehouses, charging stations, and testing – boldly ×3. We get 150-170 thousand m² under the roof. This is 15-20 buildings of 8-12 thousand m² each. Or “one gigafab” according to the political imagination.

Factories. Final assembly: if one site produces ~1.5-2 million per year, 10-14 such sites are needed. Components: 80 million motors (4 per quad) – 6-8 separate motor factories; 20 million flight controllers and 20 million ESCs – a dozen SMT factories with dozens of lines; 20 million batteries – several battery factories; optics, antennas, props – several more specialized workshops. The supply chain is not a “garage godfather”.

Robots? SMT lines, soldering/test manipulators, packaging cells: at least 500–800 robotic positions are needed. And yes, in addition to China, they are made by ABB (Switzerland/Sweden), FANUC and Yaskawa (Japan), Universal Robots (Denmark), Comau (Italy), Stäubli (Switzerland). Buying is one thing, integrating is another.

Bottom line. “20 million” is not a number, it’s a password to the door of fantasies. Without stable money, an electronic database, people, space, standards, and logistics, it’s just another episode from the “Power of Pathological Liars” series.

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