Pressure on the Kremlin has increased: how the Russian elite can persuade Putin to negotiate

The entire year of 2025 did not bring Vladimir Putin any tangible successes in the war against Ukraine. Rising economic costs and changing public sentiment may increase pressure on the Kremlin elite to demand negotiations.

This is reported by The Wall Street Journal .

Journalists noted that by the end of 2025, Russian troops had captured less than 1% of Ukraine’s territory. If the current pace of Russia’s offensive continues, it will take at least a year to reach the administrative border of the Donetsk region and establish control over the territories that the Kremlin calls a condition for starting negotiations.

An additional blow to Russia’s image was the swift capture by the US military of Venezuelan dictator Nicolas Maduro, who was considered a key Kremlin ally. There was also a reported US seizure of an oil tanker escorted by the Russian fleet.

“The brilliant success of the Americans, who showed using the example of Venezuela what a special military operation should look like, further demoralizes the people of Russia, including representatives of the elite,” said Russian political analyst Abbas Gallyamov.

Journalists also drew attention to the economic consequences of the war. Russia’s military spending in 2025 reached 15.5 trillion rubles, which is 5 times more than in 2021. At the same time, revenues from oil and gas exports in November 2025 decreased by 34%.

To cover the budget deficit, the government raised the VAT rate from 20% to 22%, which affected the standard of living of the population. High interest rates limited investment activity, and representatives of the elite lost access to assets frozen in European banks.

According to public opinion polls, in December 2024, 54% of respondents in Russia were in favor of negotiations, while this figure increased to 67% by the end of 2025. The share of those supporting the continuation of the war fell to 25%.

Analysts emphasized that despite Putin’s ability to use repressive mechanisms, his power largely depends on the support of the Kremlin elite.

“This support could be undermined if the US provided Ukraine with weapons to effectively counter Russian drones and missiles. In that case, war-weary officials and close oligarchs could persuade Putin to negotiate,” the analysts noted.

It was previously reported that Russian dictator Vladimir Putin “was able to repeat” World War II only in terms of the scale of horror , but not in terms of military results.

Recall that Russian dictator Vladimir Putin ordered his troops to continue their offensive in the Zaporizhia region and move towards Zaporizhia, despite talk of peace negotiations.

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