Putin can continue the war for at least another season: what helped Russia

Rising global oil prices have helped Russia boost budget revenues and postpone serious economic problems, allowing the Kremlin to continue financing its war against Ukraine at least until next spring.

This was reported by Fox News, citing a source in European intelligence.

According to the publication’s source, the aggravation of the situation in the Middle East involving the US, Israel, and Iran played a key role. As a result, world oil prices have increased significantly.

Russian Urals oil, which cost about $40 per barrel at the beginning of the year, rose in price to $82 in the second quarter. This brought additional revenue to the Russian budget and allowed it to partially cover financial losses.

According to the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, in April-June alone, the Russian economy received about $30 billion in additional export revenues. At the same time, revenues from oil and gas in July reached 934 billion rubles, the highest figure in more than a year.

“Higher oil prices have helped the Kremlin close more of the budget deficit and delay the moment when economic difficulties will force Putin to make difficult choices regarding war,” a European intelligence source said.

Despite this, Russia’s economic problems have not disappeared. According to official data from the Russian Ministry of Finance, the federal budget deficit has grown to 6.5 trillion rubles in the first seven months of the year. This is almost 70% more than was planned in the annual plan.

Economists believe that sanctions and current financial difficulties alone are not yet enough to force the Kremlin to end the war. For this, the situation would have to get much worse.

Elina Rybakova, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, noted that high oil revenues are currently allowing Russia to avoid the most acute consequences of the economic crisis.

“It is unlikely that the economic situation will force Putin to stop the war, especially when he is supported by high oil prices. It is bound to get much worse,” the expert emphasized.

Analysts believe that significant pressure on the Russian budget could arise only in the event of a prolonged drop in oil prices to $35–40 per barrel, but such a scenario currently seems unlikely.

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