Putin’s Warning Shot to Trump: Kremlin Rattled by Possible Tomahawk Missiles for Ukraine

Vladimir Putin is trying to play psychological chess with Washington. According to the Institute for the Study of War, the Kremlin is sending mixed signals — threats and dismissals — to influence Donald Trump’s team and prevent the transfer of Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine, aiming to secure Russia’s rear and weaken U.S. resolve.

This is stated in the ISW report.

“Putin continues to leverage prospects unrelated to the war in Ukraine to extract concessions from the United States,” analysts note.

In recent days, the Kremlin has actively responded to discussions in the White House regarding the potential supply of Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine. Vladimir Putin raised the issue of long-range missiles in speeches on October 2 and 5, claiming that their transfer would allegedly “destroy positive trends” in U.S.-Russia relations and trigger a “new stage of escalation.” By doing so, Putin directly tied the prospect of improving bilateral relations to the limitation of American support for Ukraine.

Analysts note that the Kremlin has previously outlined similar “red lines” when the U.S. considered supplying other weapons systems to Ukraine, such as ATACMS, F-16s, and Abrams tanks. The purpose of this rhetoric is to pressure the U.S. administration, offering incentives in the form of dialogue or arms control agreements in exchange for restricting aid to Kyiv.

Putin has also attempted to downplay the significance of Tomahawks, calling them “obsolete” and asserting that their use “will not change the situation on the battlefield.” This is part of the Kremlin’s information strategy to simultaneously intimidate and discredit potential military assistance.

Russia’s primary motive is to secure its rear deep inside its territory. While Ukrainian drones already reach far into Russia, their payload is limited. Long-range missiles with larger warheads, such as Tomahawks, could significantly damage or disable key rear facilities — for example, drone production sites or airbases supporting front-line operations.

Within the Tomahawk variant with a range of up to 2,500 km, there are at least 1,945 Russian military facilities; within 1,600 km, there are at least 1,655. Supplying such missiles would enable Ukraine to target logistics infrastructure that supports Russia’s combat operations at the front. Analysts reject Putin’s claims that Tomahawks would be ineffective in altering the battlefield.

Meanwhile, Russia has significantly expanded Shahed drone production, particularly at the Yelabuga factory, increasing drone attacks: in September, an average of about 187 drones flew daily, compared to 83 in January. Mass launches exceeding 500 drones at a time also became more frequent in September.

In this context, analysts emphasize that Tomahawks or other long-range systems could enable Ukraine to “change the situation” by striking vulnerable rear facilities.

Experts also note that Ukraine is developing its own long-range weapons. Mass production of the FP-5 “Flamingo” missile, with a reported range of 3,000 km and a warhead of 1,150 kg, is underway. However, analysts caution that scaling production and evaluating the system’s real combat performance will require additional time.

Recall that President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, during a closed conversation with US President Donald Trump on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly, allegedly asked the US for long-range Tomahawk cruise missiles. Earlier, US Vice President J.D. Vance reported that discussions are ongoing in Washington regarding the possible supply of high-precision Tomahawk cruise missiles to Ukraine, but the final decision on this issue depends on President Donald Trump.

Later, Moscow said it was analyzing reports of possible deliveries of long-range Tomahawk cruise missiles to Ukraine. By the way, special representative Keith Kellogg clarified that his words about the possibility of transferring Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine do not reflect Washington’s internal decisions. According to him, he was only referring to public statements, and the final decision can only be made by US President Donald Trump.

It should be noted that Ukraine has repeatedly asked the US to transfer long-range Tomahawk cruise missiles, but the White House has not yet agreed. In addition, the Kremlin is trying to scare Washington from transferring Tomahawk cruise missiles to Ukraine, presenting it as a “dangerous escalation” and trying to influence the West’s position.

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