Putin has two options left: why the Kremlin faces defeat in the war

Russian leader Vladimir Putin is faced with a choice between further escalating the war or opening negotiations with Ukraine. According to British military analyst Hamish de Bretton-Gordon, Moscow’s negotiating position is weaker now than it was a year ago.

This is reported byThe Telegraph .

Hamish de Bretton-Gordon notes that Putin has for the first time publicly acknowledged the serious threat posed by Ukrainian long-range drone and missile strikes on Russian territory. The author also noted that the Russian leader used the word “war” instead of the term “special military operation”, which, in his opinion, indicates a change in rhetoric.

According to the expert, Ukraine’s strikes on objects deep inside Russia, in particular on oil infrastructure, are increasing pressure on Moscow. The article notes that the consequences of the attacks have been fuel shortages, rising prices, and economic uncertainty for the Russian population.

Citing Western intelligence estimates, Bretton-Gordon writes that Russia is losing about 30,000 troops each month, and that the ability to replace those losses remains limited. In his opinion, this could force the Kremlin to resort to broader mobilization.

“The Russian elite has so far been content to let the burden of war fall on the shoulders of ethnic minorities, prisoners and contract soldiers. It is a completely different matter if their own sons and daughters are called up to serve. If Putin loses the support of Russia’s urban middle class and influential elite, his position could quickly become unstable,” said Hamish de Bretton-Gordon.

The analyst believes that Russia is approaching the “climax point” of the war, when its ability to continue offensive actions may be significantly reduced. According to him, the Kremlin is left with two main options for the development of events.

“Putin has essentially two options: escalation or negotiations. The nighttime attacks on residential areas in Kyiv could mark the beginning of this escalation. Many of his most ardent supporters on Telegram continue to demand the use of nuclear weapons. However, Putin understands the reality. The use of even one nuclear weapon would almost certainly provoke a massive response from the West,” said Hamish de Bretton-Gordon.

He added that NATO’s military power is capable of delivering a significant blow to the Russian armed forces, and therefore, in his opinion, the Kremlin’s only option is negotiations.

“All that remains is to negotiate,” said Hamish de Bretton-Gordon.

The article also notes that Russia’s current negotiating position is weaker than a year ago, since, according to the author, Ukraine has once again gained the strategic initiative.

“Peace now may be Putin’s best chance to preserve both his regime and his personal security. However, his negotiating position is much weaker than a year ago, when President Zelensky was under immense pressure and future support for Ukraine seemed uncertain. Today, Ukraine has regained the strategic initiative,” said Hamish de Bretton-Gordon.

The author of the article also called on Western countries to continue supporting Ukraine and not to reduce defense spending, noting that the US position could become one of the key factors that will affect Moscow’s willingness to negotiate.

By the way, the level of trust in Russian dictator Vladimir Putin has fallen by 3.4 percentage points in a week, to 73.3%. This isthe sharpest drop since the beginning of the Russian Federation’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine , according to data from the All-Russian Center for the Study of Public Opinion (VTSVGD).

Earlier, analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said that the latest statements by Russian dictator Vladimir Putin are an attempt to create the impression of an inevitable Russian victory in the war against Ukraine . At the same time, according to experts, the Kremlin is trying to influence the West and Ukraine in this way, despite the deterioration of the combat capability of the Russian army.

The day before, Russian dictator Vladimir Putin said that Russia supposedly controls the situation on the front and does not abandon its strategic goals in the war against Ukraine . He also spoke about the upcoming elections to the State Duma of the Russian Federation, calling them a test of the political system.

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