Putin may prepare new offensive in winter due to problems at the front – media

Russian dictator Vladimir Putin may try to launch a new large-scale campaign against Ukraine this winter, as the Kremlin seeks to compensate for the lack of significant successes on the front and the growing problems at home.

The New York Post writes about this, citing Western analysts.

Experts note that the Russian economy continues to feel the effects of the war. The budget deficit is growing, revenues from oil and gas sales are declining, and businesses are increasingly facing a shortage of workers.

According to Maria Snegova, a senior researcher at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, after the limited results of the spring campaign, Russia may again rely on massive strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure.

This primarily concerns energy facilities, transport infrastructure, and other systems important for the functioning of the country.

At the same time, Russia’s financial situation is worsening. According to the Russian Ministry of Finance, the federal budget deficit in the first five months of the year exceeded $81 billion, almost doubling compared to the same period last year.

Analysts also point to the reduction in gold reserves and problems with replenishing the army. According to their estimates, the pace of recruitment of contract soldiers is no longer covering the losses of Russian troops at the front.

Kateryna Stepanenko, head of the Russian branch of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), notes that more and more sectors of the civilian economy are experiencing a labor shortage due to the protracted war.

Against this background, the Kremlin is trying to attract new recruits more actively by offering financial bonuses to various categories of the population. In particular, we are talking about students and young people. Previously, Russia also actively recruited prisoners to replenish its army.

According to experts, if the economic situation continues to deteriorate, the Russian authorities may take unpopular steps – from a new wave of mobilization to cuts in social spending.

Analysts believe that the combination of economic difficulties and the lack of noticeable successes on the front could push the Kremlin to a new escalation and attempts to increase pressure on Ukraine already in the winter.

As previously reported, the massive Russian strike on Ukraine on the night of June 2 was not only another attack, but also an attempt by the Kremlin to show strength after a series of painful strikes on Russian territory.

Recall that the rejection of proposals for direct negotiations by Kremlin dictator Vladimir Putin deprived Russia of the opportunity to exit the war on more favorable terms, so the situation for Moscow will only worsen.