Putin wants to force Ukraine to capitulate by spring 2027 – ISW

Russian dictator Vladimir Putin likely expects to step up missile and drone strikes on Ukraine in the winter and thus force Kyiv to agree to Russian demands by the spring of 2027.

This is stated in a new report by the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Analysts believe that Moscow may rely on massive combined attacks with ballistic missiles and jet drones. The calculation is that Ukraine’s energy and other critical infrastructure will not withstand several months of strikes, and the shortage of Patriot missiles will complicate ballistic defense.

Russia has given an important place to Geran-type jet drones in this tactic. They are more difficult to intercept, so the Russian Federation is increasing their use. In August, such drones accounted for about 56% of Russian long-range drones launched over Ukraine.

At the same time, ISW is drawing attention to the situation on the front. Even a Kremlin-linked Russian blogger quoted by analysts called the front line “static.” The Institute notes that Russian troops have made almost no net advances in recent months.

That is why, according to ISW, Putin may increasingly rely on long-range strikes instead of counting on the constant advancement of the Russian army on the battlefield.

At the same time, Ukraine is already looking for ways to counter jet drones. The military is testing new interceptor drones, and their mass use may begin within a few months. According to Volodymyr Zelensky, in September, Ukrainian air defense intercepted more than 1,500 of the 2,730 Shahed jets launched by Russia – about 55%.

ISW believes that Moscow is unlikely to expect to maintain this pace of strikes indefinitely. The Kremlin likely wants to see if massive attacks over the winter can force Ukraine to accept Russian terms by the spring of 2027.

Analysts also suggest that by then Putin is unlikely to be ready to soften his demands or move on to serious ceasefire negotiations.

Recall that Ukrainian engineers have already created the first means to combat the Shahed jets . They have been tested in operation and already have the first successful downings.