Remote visit: why Trump’s special representative is going to Belarus

Keith Kellogg’s initiative to visit Belarus will in no way contribute to the settlement of the Russian-Ukrainian war, because the self-proclaimed president Alexander Lukashenko is completely under the control of the Kremlin dictator Vladimir Putin and has long lost his subjectivity.

This opinion was expressed on the air of “Pryamoy” by Peter Dickinson, a research fellow at the Atlantic Council, publisher of the magazines Business Ukraine and Lviv Today.

“I think that the American authorities do not have a full understanding of today’s Russia and the Putin regime. If they really believe that Belarus is a potential candidate for negotiations, they are deeply mistaken. They do not fully understand that Belarus today is a colony of Russia, practically 100% under Russian control. Lukashenko is 100% dependent on Putin for his political future. That is, it is not a neutral country. It is simply a representative of Russia. If America really thinks that it is possible to conduct any negotiations with Belarus, then this is simply an indicator that they do not understand who they are dealing with,” Dickinson noted.

According to him, US President Donald Trump is trying to distance himself from the Russian-Ukrainian war, which in turn is beneficial to Kremlin dictator Vladimir Putin. At the same time, this is not related to the conflict in the Middle East, the expert added.

“The fact that he distanced himself from Ukraine is beneficial to Putin, but I do not connect it with the events in Iran and Israel. I think that this process has already begun several months ago, and specifically we saw a trend a few weeks ago, before the start of the active phase of the war between Israel and Iran. This was a well-known trend somewhere in April, specifically in May, when Trump started saying things like “the kids on the playground should fight to the end among themselves”, “we will not interfere”, “I remain outside this negotiation process”, and so on. That is, he has already started preparing positions to show that these are not his problems, and he is leaving this negotiation process”, explains the Atlantic Council researcher.

According to Dickinson, the reason for such US policy is Trump’s reluctance to resolve this global issue, because for some reason he does not consider it a threat to American interests.

“Trump has never seen Russian aggression in Ukraine as a big problem. For him, it is not a matter of principle, he does not believe that it is a threat to America’s global position… If Russia wants to wage war in Ukraine, he is not opposed in principle. If Russia wants to seize Belarus for itself, he is definitely not opposed. Belarus, Moldova in particular. That is, for him there is no such position that any military aggression is against American interests or world order,” Peter Dickinson emphasized.

Earlier it was reported that the US President’s special representative for Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, plans to visit Belarus to meet with President Alexander Lukashenko. As noted by Reuters, Kellogg will make a trip to Belarus amid the lack of progress in the negotiations on a ceasefire in Ukraine.

The exact agenda of the meeting is unknown, although Kellogg has privately described the trip as a step that could help jumpstart a peace process to end Russia’s war in Ukraine. The U.S. State Department and the Belarusian embassy in Washington declined to comment. Kellogg and the White House also did not respond to requests for comment.

It should be noted that recently, Deputy State Secretary of the Latvian Ministry of Defense Andis Dilans stated that up to 150,000 military personnel will participate in the Russian Zapad exercises, which will take place in Belarus in 2025.

Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has expressed the opinion that Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko is afraid that Ukraine will regard the presence of Russian troops in the exercises as preparation for an offensive , so he will move them deeper into the country.

Instead, Russia has stepped up airlifts of military cargo to Belarus . Analysts believe that the current activity of transport aircraft is related to preparations for the Russian-Belarusian Zapad-2025 exercises, which are due to take place in September. In terms of scale and scenario, these maneuvers are very reminiscent of Moscow’s actions on the eve of the invasion of Ukraine in the winter of 2022.