Rising oil prices due to Iran play in Russia’s favor – ISW

Iran’s threats to ships in the Strait of Hormuz have caused a sharp increase in global oil prices and may reverse the trend of declining Russian oil revenues.

This was reported by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Analysts note that if tensions in the Strait of Hormuz persist, Russia may partially offset the decline in oil export revenues that has continued throughout the year.

Brent crude futures rose to $82.37 a barrel on March 2. For comparison, on February 27, before the US and Israeli strikes on Iran, the market closed at around $73. At the time of writing, the price was hovering around $78 a barrel.

Reports of Iranian attacks on several oil tankers linked to the US and the UK, as well as statements by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps regarding vessels in the strait, have caused shipping in the Persian Gulf to decline by at least 33% as of March 1.

Experts suggest that oil prices could rise to $90-100 per barrel if the situation in the Middle East worsens.

ISW recalls that Russia has traditionally financed the war against Ukraine with oil and gas revenues. These revenues have been declining throughout 2025, and the Russian authorities predict a further decline in 2026. To cover the deficit, Moscow is selling gold reserves and raising VAT.

In addition, Russian media reported a possible increase in oil production after the easing of OPEC+ restrictions. This is an increase to 10.9 million barrels per day in 2026. In 2025, production decreased to 9.1 million barrels per day, in particular due to attacks on oil infrastructure.

Analysts conclude that consistently high oil prices could support Russia’s economy and military spending in the medium term. At the same time, they doubt that Iran will be able to block the Strait of Hormuz long enough for the Kremlin to benefit in the long term from the current price increase.

It was previously reported that QatarEnergy, one of the world’s largest natural gas producers, completely halted production after Iranian “Shaheed” strikes on its facilities.

As a reminder, in Saudi Arabia, the Ras Tanura oil refinery complex of Saudi Aramco has suspended operations after an attack. According to preliminary data, the strike on the facility was carried out by a drone.

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