Russia Has Made a Decision on Attacking Europe

Source: Facebook page of the author.

Two statements made by the CIA today make this conclusion possible.

First, the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency warned of a possible Russian drone operation targeting Spain, France, and Italy. The provocations could involve Gerbera drones launched from vessels at sea.

Second, the CIA also warned Poland about possible Russian attempts to damage telecommunications cables in the Baltic Sea.

We are seeing two different scenarios, which means that the Kremlin has already made the fundamental decision to launch an attack. The only questions are how, when, against whom, and by what means that attack will be carried out.

And these are only two scenarios. Who knows how many others exist and how many more countries may be at risk?

The familiar assumption that preparing for an attack does not necessarily mean the attack itself will happen is, in my view, wrong. If preparations are under way, then sooner or later the attack will take place. Why prepare for something if you have no intention of doing it?

It is like in everyday life. Suppose you decide to go on a trip. You then start working out the details: where to go, how to get there, when to leave, and how much it will cost. But you would not book a hotel and buy plane tickets if you had no intention of going anywhere in the first place.

The same applies here. The Kremlin has already made the fundamental decision to attack. The only questions are where and how. Something similar happened with Ukraine. At the time, the CIA also warned only about possible scenarios for how the operation could be carried out. The decision in Moscow to launch a full-scale war against us had already been made.

What could change the situation now? Only the target or the method of attack could change. Suppose the CIA has uncovered a scenario involving drone attacks on the coasts of Spain, France, and Italy, as well as a possible attempt to damage cables in the Baltic. Fine. Putin could then abandon the cable or drone provocation and move on to Plan B. Or he could abandon plans involving Poland, Italy, France, or Spain altogether and implement scenarios involving, for example, Finland or Estonia—scenarios we do not yet know about.

But in any case, he will carry one of them out. The point of no return has already been passed.

Do not ask me about the logic behind such actions. The attack on Ukraine also seemed devoid of logic. But if you think about it, there is a logic to it. If an attack on, say, Spain fails to trigger an adequate response from NATO, that would call the very existence of NATO into question. The collapse of the Alliance would indeed be a victory for Putin. And for Ukraine, it would have extremely negative strategic consequences.

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