Russia is losing its advantage in the number of troops over Ukraine: what is the reason?

Russia is starting to lose its main advantage in the war against Ukraine — its numerical superiority in personnel. Analysts note a slowdown in the rate of recruitment of new soldiers and growing problems with replenishing the army.

This is reported by CNN .

According to journalists, the Russian government continues to offer significant financial payments to citizens for signing a contract to participate in the war against Ukraine. Advertising campaigns promise multimillion-dollar payments, simplified citizenship, and other benefits.

At the same time, according to Russian economic expert Yanis Kluge, in the first quarter of 2026, military recruitment decreased by 20% compared to the same period in 2025.

Nigel Gould-Davies, a senior fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said there are signs that fiscal stimulus is no longer working as effectively as it used to.

“There are signs that this incentive is no longer working effectively, and Russia has begun to lose more troops than it can recruit,” Gould-Davies said.

Analysts say Moscow is taking additional steps to bolster its military, including recruiting former prisoners, North Korean soldiers, and recruiting foreigners. According to Gould-Davis, the personnel problems are affecting not only the military but also the Russian economy as a whole.

“They’re not just trying to find people for the front. They’re also trying to find people for employment,” the analyst noted.

Experts also point to a labor shortage in the Russian defense industry. According to their estimates, many enterprises are working at the limit of their capabilities, which makes it difficult to further increase military production.

Analysts do not rule out that the Kremlin may resort to new measures to replenish the army, including additional mobilization or expanding the recruitment of foreigners.

At the same time, experts note that Ukraine continues to increase technological capabilities on the battlefield, particularly in the field of unmanned systems. According to Kateryna Stepanenko, an analyst at the Institute for the Study of War, Ukrainian forces demonstrate an advantage in innovation and effectively use unmanned technologies.

The Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Oleksandr Syrsky, previously stated that in May, Ukrainian drone operators inflicted losses on Russian troops that exceeded the rate of recruitment of new servicemen into the Russian army. In addition, analysts note a deterioration in the quality of the Russian army’s personnel due to the involvement of former prisoners and insufficiently trained soldiers in combat operations.

By the way, over the past 24 hours, the Russian army lost 1,440 servicemen killed and wounded on the front in Ukraine .

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