Russia is preparing a bridgehead in Transnistria: Odesa is under threat
Фото: росЗМІ
Russia has sharply intensified military preparations in Transnistria and increased pressure on southern Ukraine, creating a new threat to the Odessa region.
According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), the Kremlin is trying to distract Ukrainian forces and force them to keep significant units in the southern direction.
According to the GUR, several dangerous processes are taking place simultaneously in Transnistria: reservists are being called up for service, equipment is being taken out of storage, UAV operator training centers are being opened, and drone production is being established. Ukrainian intelligence warns: these actions increase the risk of Russian sabotage groups penetrating the Odessa region in the near future.
The ISW report notes that Odessa region shares a direct border with Transnistria, and that the distance from Tiraspol to Odessa is less than 80 kilometers. The deployment of Russian drone units in the region puts the city at risk of medium-range strikes: Russia has long been striking Ukraine’s rear areas at a distance of 25–100 km and may transfer some of these capabilities to forces in Transnistria.
The GUR emphasizes: the Kremlin’s actions are forcing Ukrainian forces to strengthen the defense of the south, prepare for sabotage, and practice scenarios for local invasions. Meanwhile, Russian propaganda is spreading narratives about “Russian Odessa,” against which threats of an attack on Odessa and Mykolaiv regions are sounding increasingly aggressive.
ISW analysts warn that Moscow is laying the groundwork for future offensive operations in the south, but large-scale attacks are not expected in the coming months. The likely scenario is targeted strikes, infiltration, sabotage work, and the active use of drones at operational depth.
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