Russia is preparing a new wave of mobilization of 600,000 people.
фото: ЦПД
The Russian military-political leadership is exploring the possibility of a new wave of mobilization in 2026-2027. According to Ukrainian intelligence, Moscow may plan to conscript approximately 300,000 people in 2026 and another 300,000 in 2027.
The Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine and the Foreign Intelligence Service reported this on August 27.
Significant losses in the Russian army and the slowdown in recruiting contract service members are cited as one of the main reasons for preparing for mobilization. According to Ukrainian intelligence estimates, between January and July 2026, Russia lost approximately 240,000 troops, of which at least 140,000 were irretrievable.
At the same time, during this period, the Russian group managed to recruit less than 232 thousand people under contract.
According to the Ukrainian side, the Russian General Staff has already prepared a plan for an additional mobilization of 600,000 troops. They are planned to be used to reinforce units fighting against Ukraine, as well as to form new military units.
Moscow is simultaneously expanding its options for recruiting convicted prisoners into the war. Specifically, the recruitment of individuals with outstanding convictions for a number of serious crimes is being considered. Russian authorities are also allowing the recruitment of women serving prison sentences into military service.
Russia is also tightening controls over military registration. A system of electronic mobilization orders is already in place.
Possible coercive measures include restrictions on travel abroad, access to loans, real estate transactions, blocking bank accounts, and other restrictions for conscripts.
Meanwhile, the recruitment of contract soldiers in several Russian regions is already lagging behind plans. According to Ukrainian intelligence, the plan fulfillment rate is approximately 57-69%, while in the Volgograd Region, the number of potential contract soldiers has decreased by 40% compared to 2025.
The training of mobilized personnel can last from 15 to 60 days, depending on the level of training. It is possible that some of the training will be conducted at training grounds in Belarus.
According to Ukrainian intelligence, the Kremlin may make a final decision on a new wave of mobilization after the Russian State Duma elections, scheduled for September 18-20, 2026.
At the same time, an important nuance: this is specifically about Ukraine’s assessment and intelligence regarding the Kremlin’s possible plans, and not about Russia’s confirmed decision to begin mobilization.
Earlier, political expert Taras Zagorodniy stated that, in the wake of Ukraine’s attacks on Russian oil refineries and the largest marketplace, Wildberries, social tensions are rising within Russia and protest sentiments are developing. These processes are becoming especially noticeable in the run-up to the Duma elections , scheduled for the fall.
Let us recall that the Russians are launching a large-scale propaganda campaign in the occupied territories of Ukraine before the so-called State Duma elections, which will take place on September 20.
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