If Russia Moves West: A Plausible Attack Scenario

Source: Author’s Facebook page

A report by the Munich Security Conference warns that Russia may be preparing for a potential confrontation with European countries. Moscow has allocated nearly 8% of its GDP—about 40% of the federal budget—to military spending, while persistent nuclear threats underscore the risk that the war could extend beyond Ukraine’s borders.

In particular, Russia could rebuild its forces for a “regional war” in the Baltic region within two years of a possible ceasefire in Ukraine—and for a local war against one of its neighbors—within six months.

It is also noted that a ceasefire in Ukraine could only increase the risk of an attack on NATO countries, since it is Ukraine that is currently holding back Russian forces.

At the same time, the US distanced itself from European security affairs.

Already at such a serious venue as the Munich Security Conference, it is being acknowledged what your humble servant wrote about a year ago: Russia is preparing an attack on Europe.

The main trump card of the Russians is their advanced combat experience. This experience involves the widespread use of UAVs. In this regard, the estimate of 6 months, during which Russia can attack any of its neighbors, in my opinion, is overly optimistic.

Such an attack could happen tomorrow. Think of the two dozen drones that Russia sent to Poland on September 10 last year. Poland shot down only a few of these devices, and most of them went down only because they ran out of fuel.

Now imagine 2,000 strike drones attacking a small European country. In a matter of hours, they would destroy major air defense assets and hit important military facilities and decision-making centers.

Russia’s neighbors have no defense against such an attack. Moscow will only have to dictate its will to the defeated country.

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