Russia will not be able to break through the front: ISW assessed the prospects of the offensive

The Russian authorities are already creating an information background to explain the possible failure of the spring offensive in eastern Ukraine.

This was reported by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Analysts note that Russian troops have already begun active offensive operations, but are suffering significant losses. Earlier, the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Oleksandr Syrsky, stated that the Russian Federation is throwing tens of thousands of soldiers into exhausting infantry attacks.

According to him, in just four days, the Russian army lost more than 6,090 people killed and wounded. In a week, losses reached 8,710 soldiers.

ISW emphasizes that such losses exceed the capabilities of Russian mobilization and may limit the Russian Federation’s ability to conduct large-scale offensive operations in the medium and long term.

Analysts believe that in 2026, Russian forces will not be able to capture the so-called “belt of fortresses” and will achieve only limited tactical results at the cost of significant losses.

At the same time, the Kremlin is already preparing society for a slow advance. In particular, one of the deputies of the Russian State Duma stated that losses are inevitable, and Russian troops will act more cautiously, advancing towards Sloviansk and Kramatorsk.

It was previously reported that the authorities in Russia have revised plans for the participation of war veterans in the 2026 State Duma elections. The expected number of such candidates has been reduced, and the priority has shifted to loyalty and manageability.

Let us recall that last week the Russian army increased the intensity of offensive actions at the front, in particular, from March 17 to 20, the enemy tried to break through the defensive formations of the Defense Forces of Ukraine in several strategic directions.