Russian economic growth has dropped to zero: the Central Bank predicts failure

The Russian Central Bank, in a new macro forecast, admitted that economic growth in the Russian Federation could fall to zero by the end of 2025. This is perhaps the regulator’s most pessimistic forecast in recent years.

This was reported by the Center for Countering Disinformation.

In the first quarter, Russia’s GDP grew by only 1.4%, compared to 4.1% last year and 1.8% in the second quarter. Growth in the fourth quarter of 2025 is expected to be a maximum of 1%, or possibly none at all.

It is noted that the Central Bank still avoids the concept of “stagnation”, talking about an “overheated” economy and a return to “balanced growth.”

However, Russia is not silent about the difficulties. The commentary to the forecast indicates that due to high lending rates, it is increasingly difficult for companies to finance their activities and they are forced to use up inventories.

“It is becoming increasingly obvious that the Russian economy is bursting at the seams. The war and sanctions have a long-term destructive effect that can no longer be hidden by propaganda. With such forecasts, the authorities are preparing Russians for even worse scenarios and signaling that improvements should not be expected,” the CPD noted.

It was previously reported that business activity in Russia’s industrial sector fell in July 2025 to its lowest level since March 2022 .

As reported, up to 20% of car dealerships in Russia may close by the end of the year.

In addition, Russia’s largest automaker AvtoVAZ has suspended production from July 29 to August 11 inclusive . The official reason is “corporate vacation,” but in reality the decision is related to a critical situation on the market: the company’s warehouses are overflowing with unsold cars.