Russian provocation against Poland: media reveals possible scenario
The US has warned Poland that Russia is preparing an armed provocation in the coming months. It could test NATO’s resolve. However, there is currently no official confirmation of this information.
This was reported by The Telegraph, citing sources close to Polish President Karol Nawrocki, as well as the Polish publication Onet.
According to journalists, Washington allegedly repeatedly warned Warsaw about possible Russian provocations.
“Polish critical infrastructure could be targeted by missile strikes and drone attacks,” The Telegraph notes.
The Polish ambassador to a NATO country and a source in the Polish Ministry of Defense have warned that a Russian provocation in one of the Baltic countries poses a serious threat.
The Telegraph’s interlocutor emphasized that the Kremlin is considering such scenarios.
According to Onet’s source in the Polish security services, drone attacks on critical infrastructure facilities, in particular power plants, or simulating air strikes to activate air defense systems are possible.
“In the worst-case scenario, a hybrid attack on one of the border regions could occur. An armed invasion by the Russian or Belarusian military is also possible,” the publication’s source noted.
At the same time, Russia can present such actions as an accidental crossing of the Polish border or a rescue operation to evacuate a helicopter that allegedly malfunctioned.
“Moscow expects that in this case, Poland, under pressure from the US, will be forced to negotiate, rather than respond with force,” the publication’s sources report.
According to The Telegraph, a scenario in which Russia withdraws its troops after negotiations, rather than a military confrontation, would be seen as a victory in the Kremlin. One of Moscow’s demands in such talks could be the cessation of support for Ukraine.
According to Onet’s sources, the Russian provocation will not resemble a classic war, and a final decision on its launch has not yet been made in Moscow.
The Telegraph also notes that NATO may respond to the Russian provocation with strikes on Kaliningrad.
A representative of the Polish Ministry of Defense confirmed to Onet the possibility of a Russian provocation, but emphasized that Poland had already conducted exercises designed to warn Moscow of a devastating response from NATO.
In particular, last week Latvian intelligence reported that it was detecting signs of Russia preparing for provocations against the Baltic states and Poland. A week earlier, a source for The Guardian in one of the NATO countries said that it was receiving intelligence that Moscow was “planning something against the Baltic states.” Also last week, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk publicly expressed concern, saying that “the situation is extremely unstable, and various forms of escalation can be expected in the coming weeks and months.”
It was previously reported that NATO intelligence sources are warning that Russia may resort to military provocations in the Baltic states or Poland if it senses the approach of the front to Moscow and St. Petersburg. According to Western sources, this is not a full-scale attack, but a possible hybrid attack.
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