Shadow Operations: Russian Intelligence Preparing Moves in Belarus
The special services of the occupying country are preparing a large-scale provocation on the territory of Belarus with elements of an operation “under a foreign flag” in order to accuse Ukraine of sabotage on the territory of this country.
According to the analytical department of the GI “Prava Sprava,” Russian special services are preparing a provocation with strikes on oil refineries and fuel and lubricant warehouses on the territory of the Republic of Belarus. At the same time, responsibility for such actions may lie with the Defense Forces of Ukraine, in particular, the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine.
In parallel, information support for this provocation by the Russian special services is being prepared. In particular, a video of the interrogation of a captured soldier of the GUR special unit of the Ministry of Defense may be released this week. The latter, under pressure, will testify about Ukrainian intelligence’s collection of information on the locations of fuel and lubricant storage facilities, routes for the supply of crude oil for processing at key enterprises in Belarus, and schedules for the shipment of products, primarily for the needs of the occupying country.
In addition, according to the analytical department of “Prava Sprava,” at a planned press conference, the Ukrainian prisoner is to provide information about the collection of information by the radio-electronic intelligence units of the GUR MOU on conversations between Belarusian air traffic controllers and Belavia pilots.
I would like to draw your attention to the fact that in November 2025, the US officially lifted sanctions on the Belarusian state airline Belavia, removing it from the sanctions list. This decision was a consequence of Belarus’ release of 52 political prisoners in September 2025. Restrictions were also lifted on individual aircraft, including the one carrying Alexander Lukashenko.
The scenario is multi-vector in nature and combines information and psychological operations, as well as possible sabotage actions against critical infrastructure enterprises of the Republic of Belarus. A complex operation of Russian special services “under a foreign flag” is being prepared.
In such a scenario, responsibility will lie with the Russian special services. Such actions by the Russian special services are an attempt to accuse Ukraine of destabilizing the internal situation on the territory of the Republic of Belarus and bear signs of active operations in the information field with the aim of forming an anti-Ukrainian information agenda.
Let me remind you that Russian special services were already planning similar operations; in particular, they wanted to blow up the building where the captured “Azovites” were to be tried. After the publication of information from the analytical department of the “Prava Sprava” intelligence agency, the Russians’ plans were thwarted. The trial did not take place.
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