Russians flee abroad due to Kremlin’s preparations for mobilization: over 113,000 people have left the country

More than 113,000 Russians have left the Verkhny Lars checkpoint on the Russian-Georgian border in a week amid fears of a new mobilization. Russian authorities have stepped up measures to register reservists, and security forces are preparing for a possible mobilization period.

This is reported by Politico .

According to the publication, Russian authorities have recently intensified the collection of personal data of reservists, intensified recruitment, and expanded the powers of the Russian Guard. This comes amid concerns about a possible new draft into the Russian army.

Alexei Tabalov, founder of the human rights organization School of the Conscript, reported an increase in requests for legal assistance from men of military age, primarily from the military reserve. According to him, in recent months, the Russian authorities have been actively collecting personal data of reservists through their employers, including the addresses of their relatives.

Reservists are also being called to military registration and enlistment offices and told which units they should report to if mobilization is announced. Tabalov believes this could create the basis for a faster and less public rollout of the new draft.

Certain decisions by the Russian authorities may also indicate preparations for mobilization. In March, Russia made electronic summonses mandatory for conscription procedures. Now, after they are issued through an online system, the information is automatically transmitted to the border guard service, and the person may be banned from leaving the country.

In July, Russian media reported that the Rosgvardia was preparing personnel, staff, and facilities for possible mobilization. The order provides for additional security measures during mobilization periods, martial law, and war.

Against this background, Russia is also trying to compensate for the shortage of new military personnel through a contract campaign. In particular, the authorities planned to recruit about 80 thousand people to the newly created “Unmanned Systems Troops”, but by July they managed to recruit only about 8 thousand people.

In June, reports emerged in Penza, Russia, of mass searches of men being taken to military draft offices by law enforcement and military personnel. Local authorities denied involvement in the abductions and forced mobilization.

According to Politico, the Russian Ministry of Defense has set a goal of recruiting 409,000 contract soldiers by the end of 2026. At the same time, attempts to compensate for the shortage of personnel through volunteers and contract soldiers are becoming increasingly difficult.

Ukrainian military expert Oleksandr Kovalenko believes that the combination of these measures may indicate Russia’s preparation for a tougher mobilization campaign.

Meanwhile, the Kremlin continues to deny that a new mobilization is being prepared. Russian Ambassador to the UN Vasily Nebenzia said that a large-scale draft is not currently planned, and Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov called the mobilization report information allegedly spread by the Ukrainian authorities.

At the same time, an official announcement of a new mobilization in Russia is not expected until September. During this period, the country is due to hold parliamentary elections, and a new draft could negatively affect Vladimir Putin’s political positions.

Fears of a new mobilization have already led to an increase in the flow of people through the Upper Lars. In September 2022, after Putin announced a partial mobilization of 300,000 people, over 100,000 Russians left for Georgia via this route in a week.

According to human rights activists, it is increasingly difficult for the Kremlin to recruit new soldiers through volunteers, while Russia’s losses, according to Ukrainian estimates, exceed the number of those wishing to join the army for the first time. This may increase pressure on the authorities regarding a new mobilization decision.

By the way, the Russian military-political leadership is working on the possibility of conducting a new wave of mobilization in 2026–2027. According to Ukrainian intelligence, Moscow may plan to call up about 300 thousand people in 2026 and another 300 thousand in 2027.

Earlier, political expert Taras Zagorodny stated that against the backdrop of Ukraine’s attacks on Russian refineries and the largest marketplace Wildberries, social tension is increasing and protest sentiments are forming within the Russian Federation. These processes are becoming especially noticeable on the eve of the Duma elections , which are scheduled for the fall.

Let us remind you that the Russians are launching a large-scale propaganda campaign in the occupied territories of Ukraine ahead of the so-called State Duma elections, which will be held on September 20.

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