Russia’s banking system has lost signs of stability – intelligence data

A full-fledged crisis has actually begun in the Russian banking system, despite the regulator’s statements about the stability of the sector.

This was reported by the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine.

According to intelligence, the Russian banking system lost key signs of resilience in 2025. Banks’ net profit decreased by 8% compared to 2024 and amounted to $45 billion, and return on capital fell to 18%.

The deterioration in financial indicators occurred against the backdrop of a sharp increase in reserves and an increase in the cost of raising resources due to a tight monetary policy. The SZRU notes that these trends indicate not a temporary slowdown, but the beginning of a deeper systemic dysfunction.

At the same time, the quality of the loan portfolio is deteriorating. The share of problem loans has increased to 11%, and unsecured loans – to 12%. Such default rates are inconsistent with official statements about the stability of the sector.

Even analysts at the Kremlin-friendly Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting have effectively acknowledged the onset of a systemic banking crisis. According to their assessments, apparent stability is based on the dominance of state-owned banks, massive restructurings of problem assets, and regulatory easing.

The intelligence agency emphasizes that such a model only postpones the crisis and increases the risk of a large-scale outflow of deposits if the situation worsens.

The Russian Central Bank has effectively switched to manual management, allowing banks to hide problem loans under the guise of restructuring. The SZRU predicts that the sector will inevitably need additional state support, which will increase fiscal and macroeconomic pressure on the Russian economy.

It was previously reported that India agreed to stop purchasing Russian oil, although it still remained the second largest buyer of this resource from Russia.

Recall that the Russian Federal Budget has been experiencing a serious deficit for the fourth year in a row.