Is Russia’s Economy Really Collapsing — or Just Rewiring for War?

Source: Author’s Facebook page
Some news items are just too striking to ignore — and today’s headlines delivered more than a few. So let’s dive in.

Oil prices have dropped again — and honestly, it couldn’t have gone any other way.
The main reason for the decline is the influx of cheap oil from Guyana, Brazil, and Kazakhstan. The market is now flooded with supply, so the recent price increase caused by the war was always going to be temporary. And more drops are coming.

Second. The expansion of the Baikal-Amur Mainline (BAM) and the Trans-Siberian Railway has been postponed for two years.
Why? There’s no money.
This was an infrastructure megaproject intended to increase the export of raw materials to China — and they can’t fund it.

If that doesn’t sound alarming enough, let me break it down:
Imagine Gazprom — the gas giant — now unable to afford to build a pipeline to sell more gas. That’s exactly the role the entire Russian economy has stepped into.
They don’t have the money to build the highway.
And this isn’t the only case.

Moscow is also freezing construction of the North-South Transport Corridor.
The funding is expected to run dry by July — and then, that’s it. No more money.

But the consequences don’t stop there.
Local authorities in Russia’s Far East have already sounded the alarm. Why? Because Russian Railways contractors are the primary taxpayers in the region. If construction halts, the tax base disappears — and with it, the region’s entire economy could collapse.

Moscow has no money.
And now, this financial vacuum is hitting Russia’s military-industrial complex as well.

Because — here comes news number three…

The company Option-Stavropol has ceased operations due to debt: accounts have been frozen, and staff are being laid off.
This is no small enterprise — it manufactures power semiconductors for Russian military aviation (Su, MiG, Tu) and the defense industry. Reports say the company has been operating at a loss for nearly a year.
And this is far from an isolated case — for months, insiders have reported that Russian defense contractors are suffering from non-payment across the board.

And finally — news #4.
The Russian government has already had to spend 26 billion rubles to bail out Alrosa, the country’s flagship diamond mining and sales corporation, and save it from bankruptcy.
Why? Because the Russian diamond industry is under sanctions.
Exports have plunged by nearly 40% compared to pre-war levels, and to prevent total collapse, the Russian government is now buying its diamonds — using public funds.

That’s right. Moscow is buying diamonds from itself.

Even China — supposedly Russia’s “strategic partner” — refuses to buy Russian diamonds, even at discounted prices, for fear of falling under Western secondary sanctions.

And yes — I’m writing this specifically for the naïve optimists, the geopolitically illiterate, and the clinically delusional commenters already drafting their “China will help Russia” responses.
If you don’t understand the subject — don’t write nonsense.
And if you do — don’t take offense at the accuracy of this description.

But here’s the real question:
Why aren’t Russian diamonds being re-exported through third countries, the way Russian oil often is?

It’s not about pricing — they’re not being bought at all.

There may be only one plausible explanation:
The global diamond market’s second major monopolist — De Beers — has likely made it crystal clear to all major buyers that anyone purchasing Russian diamonds will face serious consequences.

There are many forms of pressure in this world — some subtle, some blunt.
And when De Beers refuses to touch Russian diamonds even at rock-bottom prices, it likely means only one thing:

They’re planning to take over everything — for next to nothing — soon.

I anticipate the question: “But you recently said that Moscow is increasing drone production and that this fall we could face an invasion of 700 drones every day!”
Yes, I said that, and I stand by it. Moscow has indeed thrown all its remaining resources into drones to shift the balance on the front lines — that is true.

Just as it is true that Hitler, at one point, poured every possible resource into his so-called “Wunderwaffe”, including the V-2 rockets. The peak of their rocket attacks came at the end of 1944… and then something very bad happened to Germany.

It’s also true that during World War I, Germany launched a desperate offensive at the Marne River in July 1918 — and by November of that same year, Germany surrendered to the Entente under humiliating terms.

It is equally true that Russia’s economy is in free fall — and that gives us a tremendous opportunity.
We must seize this chance while minimizing our losses.

Because the fact that this opportunity exists is not so much thanks to political leaders, but thanks to the Ukrainian soldiers who, despite everything, grit their teeth and hold the line.

But the fact that our skies remain vulnerable to 700 drones a day? That is precisely the fault of those in power.

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