Sanctions did not force the Kremlin to end the war against Ukraine: how much longer will Russia be able to finance hostilities?

Russia’s economy is facing growing problems due to sanctions and high war costs, but these factors are not yet decisive for stopping the fighting. Analysts believe that the Kremlin retains the ability to continue the war against Ukraine for at least another 3-5 years.

This is reported by CNN .

Journalists noted that the Russian economy is experiencing stagnation in various sectors, but the current state is not critical for the country’s political leadership. The economic pressure caused by Western sanctions and excessive military spending has not yet changed the Kremlin’s strategic intentions.

“If you look at the economy itself, it will not be the last straw that will fill the enemy’s cup. This is not a catastrophe. This can be controlled,” said Maria Snegova, senior research fellow for Russia and Eurasia at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

According to her, the current economic situation allows Russia to continue the war for at least another 3-5 years. The longer-term perspective, according to experts, is difficult to predict.

Analysts point out that the key factor remains energy exports, which ensure the flow of funds to the budget. This is what allows avoiding a sharp economic collapse.

“As long as Russia is producing oil and selling it at a fairly reasonable price, it has enough money to just get on with it. I’m not saying it’s a really rosy picture for them, but they have enough money that the economy is not a factor in Putin’s calculations when he thinks about war,” said Richard Connolly, a senior fellow at the British think tank RUSI.

Journalists also point out that previous examples in Russian history indicate that wars were curtailed only in conditions of deep economic recession. The current situation, according to experts, is much less critical.

Analysts say that Russia’s initial economic recovery, driven by rising energy prices and increased military spending, has already ended. The financial burden of the war is now increasingly being passed on to the population through tax pressures and inflation.

At the same time, experts emphasize that high inflation in Russia does not cause mass social discontent due to state propaganda and repressive mechanisms. In addition, part of the population, particularly in sectors related to the military-industrial complex, has received a significant increase in income.

“Russian soldiers are paid more today than ever before, and these payments significantly exceed the income they could receive in civilian life in depressed regions,” said Richard Connolly.

According to analysts, the lack of large-scale protests against the war reduces internal pressure on the Russian leadership when making further decisions.

Recall that the United States has developed a confidential strategic document that outlines a roadmap for Russia’s gradual return to the global economic system after the end of the war.

At the same time, the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine claims that the Russian economy is in a state of systemic decline , which even official reports can no longer mask.

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