Security Guarantees from the US: Why the Deal Keeps Getting Delayed

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The United States says it will provide security guarantees to Ukraine only after a peace agreement with Russia is signed, but the details, especially on territory, remain secret, Reuters reports.

When the Ukrainian authorities put everything on hold—to essentially “anoint” Trump, his university friend, with a lithium deposit—it turns out that some agreements are being made under blackout conditions. With people already cutting back on mobile phone usage, obtaining information about paid foreign media subscriptions becomes nearly impossible

Zelenskyy has spoken about a reconstruction agreement with the U.S. But will there be anything to rebuild if Radio Liberty’s prediction comes true—that the Russians are determined to create conditions where Zaporizhia can be bombarded with artillery?

I specifically watched the YouTube broadcasts of the telethon channels. There is one positive and constructive thing there: Gerasimov has lost his mind, thousands of Russians are bankrupt, and Russia is struggling because of a coup in China.

In practice, under these so-called peace agreements, the Russian Federation refuses to abandon its territorial claims to regions it did not fully occupy but enshrined in its constitution. Moreover, it aims to acquire new territory—effectively a “new Sudetenland”—using the Donbas as a springboard for further offensives. The gas pipelines in the Poltava region and the industrial zones along the Dnipro present a separate set of concerns, likely influencing Russia’s plans for the next phase of the conflict.

The Europeans have only now dared to announce tougher measures against the Russian “shadow fleet” transporting oil in the Baltic and North Seas. This is certainly notable, although Ukrainian experts have been warning about this “needle in a haystack” for at least two years.

Will there be further action? We’ll see. Perhaps it wouldn’t have happened if the U.S. hadn’t intercepted several such tankers off its coast. And then, amid loud scandals, some of our citizens continue to work quite normally on these vessels—feeding their families.

In short, reconstruction after the war is not the main thing we should be worrying about. In Kyiv, former café workers still joke about cesspools, and DTEK says that “you turned on the boilers; that’s why there is no electricity”—although it is now clear that for years the cats (electrical crews) haven’t been properly maintaining the shields and cables. And there are only a few brigades, because people were mobilized en masse. These are not Petrov and Ivanov with elite armor.

I don’t know what kind of reconstruction and guarantees they are discussing in complete secrecy. Sweet positive slogans won’t help us—they only prepare the ground for further Russian aggression.

Security guarantees will definitely not depend on a piece of paper with Trump, who is looking for trump cards for the fall elections. They depend on whether our country and its major economic hubs remain livable—and whether we will have the resources to pay for our army, because Russia will find the money to wage war. Right now, our business is running on three crossbars and a generator.

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