Signs of progress in Ukraine talks: breakthrough not possible before March

Peace talks between Ukraine, the United States and Russia have shown signs of cautious progress, but a breakthrough is not expected anytime soon. Analysts believe that significant agreements are unlikely before March.

This is reported by The Economist .

The publication’s analysts draw attention to US President Donald Trump’s statement about Russia’s promise to refrain from attacks on Kyiv’s energy system until February 1, which he regarded as a concession to Ukraine. This concerns Kyiv’s demand for a so-called energy ceasefire on the eve of the next round of talks in Abu Dhabi.

The material notes that Russian President Vladimir Putin may use the negotiation process to stall for time, but at the same time he may signal a willingness to compromise, some contours of which are already being outlined.

According to sources close to the Ukrainian negotiating team, the trilateral talks involving Ukraine, the United States, and Russia, which took place on January 23 and 24 in Abu Dhabi, were among the most constructive ever.

At the same time, key issues have remained unresolved for several months. These include the possibility of Russia accepting the security guarantees agreed between Ukraine and the United States, as well as the prospects for control over the territories that Ukraine continues to hold.

“A major breakthrough is unlikely to be expected until at least March, when Russia’s winter offensive ends and the country’s growing economic problems begin to escalate,” analysts note.

The publication also emphasizes that the negotiations scheduled for February 1 may demonstrate the Kremlin’s real intentions, in particular regarding the possible softening of the demand to transfer to Ukraine the fortified areas of Donbas, which are currently under the control of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

Ukraine’s position is to maintain the current demarcation line in the event of a ceasefire. Among the options being discussed is the creation of a demilitarized zone, potentially under the management of an international “Peace Council.”

“We cannot resolve any of these issues without agreeing on a security system in the region. The Russians cannot simply say: trust us,” said the publication’s interlocutor, close to the negotiation process.

Analysts add that Ukraine is pursuing a two-pronged strategy: on the one hand, it is demonstrating readiness for US-led negotiations, and on the other, it is preparing for a long confrontation by strengthening the army and deterring Russian forces.

By the way, US President Donald Trump and his representatives held a series of talks on the war in Ukraine, but Russia stuck to its maximalist demands. As a result , the resolution of the conflict has been postponed, and attacks on Ukrainian cities and energy infrastructure continue.

Earlier, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said thatactive work is underway to resolve the territorial issue of Donetsk in US-brokered talks to end Russia’s war in Ukraine , calling this disagreement a key issue that is “very difficult” to resolve.

Recall that Washington told Ukraine that it must sign a peace agreement with Russia in order to receive US security guarantees.

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