The EBRD has downgraded its forecast for Ukrainian economic growth in 2026.

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development has downgraded its forecast for Ukrainian economic growth for 2026 and 2027. The bank notes that the country’s economy has approached stagnation due to intensifying Russian attacks and export problems.

This is stated in the September review of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development .

Ukraine’s real GDP will grow by 1.5% in 2026. In June, the bank expected growth of 2.2%, meaning the forecast was lowered by 0.7 percentage points.

The EBRD forecasts Ukrainian economic growth of 2.5% in 2027. The preliminary estimate was 4%, so it was revised up by 1.5 percentage points.

The bank attributes the worsening forecast primarily to increased Russian attacks on energy and other infrastructure, as well as new disruptions to Black Sea ports and cargo transportation.

Difficulties with grain exports have become a separate problem for Ukraine. Alternative routes via the Danube and land routes cannot fully compensate for the loss of seaport capacity. Furthermore, the Danube’s capacity is limited by low water levels and damaged infrastructure.

Due to supply disruptions and rising fertilizer costs, wheat prices have risen by more than a third since February 2026. The EBRD expects them to remain high until 2028.

At the same time, the bank notes that Ukraine maintains macroeconomic stability thanks to significant external financial support. However, damage to energy infrastructure, labor shortages, weak business sentiment, and logistical challenges are holding back economic recovery.

Economic growth in the EBRD’s regions of operation has slowed, from 3.6% in 2025 to 3.1% in the first half of 2026. The bank cites rising energy prices, supply disruptions, and the aftermath of the war in Ukraine as factors.