The government revised the forecast for Ukraine’s economic growth for 2027: details

The Cabinet of Ministers has revised Ukraine’s macroeconomic forecast for 2026–2029 downwards. In particular, the expected GDP growth in 2027 has been reduced from 1.3% to 0.4%, and the profits of profitable enterprises may be 19% lower than the previous scenario. The new calculations will affect the finalization of the draft state budget for 2027.

This was reported by People’s Deputy Yaroslav Zheleznyak.

The government considered the updated forecast on November 11. This is the second scenario of the macroeconomic forecast for 2027–2029, which was used as the basis for the draft budget for 2027 (No. 16000).

How economic forecasts have changed

According to updated calculations, the expected growth of Ukraine’s real GDP in 2027 will be only 0.4%, compared to the 1.3% previously projected.

The forecast for 2026 has also been worsened: instead of 1.6% growth, the government now expects only 0.1%. Thus, the economy will effectively remain without growth.

In addition, the assessment of inflation and foreign trade has been revised. In particular, inflation in 2026, according to the new forecast, will be 10.6% instead of 9.2%.

Exports of goods and services in 2026 may decline by 1.9%, while the previous scenario predicted a growth of 3.1%. In monetary terms, its volume is estimated at $52.9 billion, compared to the previously expected $55.8 billion.

Nominal GDP in 2027 is forecast at UAH 11,185 billion. This is approximately UAH 345 billion less than the figure of UAH 11,531 billion envisaged by the first scenario of the Budget Declaration.

What is predicted for business?

The revision of macro indicators predicts a deterioration in expectations regarding the financial results of enterprises. In particular, the profit of profitable companies in 2027 may amount to UAH 1,756 billion versus UAH 2,160 billion under the previous scenario. The difference is about 19%.

At the same time, the government expects a significant increase in the price of industrial products. Producer prices could increase by 17.3% per year, while previously forecast an increase of 10.3%. This means additional pressure on business costs, in particular due to rising prices for raw materials, metal and energy.

Inflation in 2027 is forecast at 8.5% on a December-to-December basis.

Exports are also expected to grow almost unchanged, forecast at 0.8%, while imports are expected to increase by 10.7%. The negative balance of trade in goods and services could reach $85 billion.

In the labor market, the government forecasts unemployment at 13% in 2027. This figure may remain almost unchanged at 13.3% by 2029. The number of employed people is estimated at 12.7 million people.

The average salary in 2027 is forecast to be UAH 36,804. Its real growth, taking into account inflation, is expected to be 4.9%.

What assumptions did the government make?

The deterioration in economic expectations is due to a number of factors that the government took into account when updating the forecast.

In particular, the document states that the ports of Greater Odessa will continue to operate with significant restrictions. The destruction in the metallurgical industry, energy and logistics during 2026 has already led to a reduction in production capacity.

In addition, investment activity remains limited due to delays in international financing. The government is also taking into account the continuation of intensive Russian shelling in the first half of 2027.

At the same time, the forecast retains the assumption that active hostilities will end in 2027. It is this scenario that underlies expectations for the start of economic recovery in the second half of the year.

Separately, the government assessed the impact of energy restrictions. According to calculations, every 1 billion kWh of electricity that cannot be produced will reduce the GDP growth forecast by another 0.15 percentage points.

What to expect in the coming years

Despite the worsening forecast for 2026–2027, the government expects economic growth to accelerate in the future.

According to the second scenario, GDP could grow by 4.1% in 2028, and by 5.9% in 2029.

Inflation is forecast at 8.2% in 2028 and 5.9% in 2029. Average annual export growth is expected at 9.5%, provided that ports resume full operation.

The Ministry of Finance will use the updated macroeconomic indicators when finalizing the draft state budget for 2027 between the first and second readings.

At the same time, lower expectations for GDP and corporate profits may mean a narrowing of the tax base, and therefore create additional risks for budget revenues. This may increase the government’s need to seek additional sources of financing, in particular through changes in taxation or tax administration. At the same time, this is an analytical conclusion, not a position directly recorded in a government document.

It is noted that the forecast was discussed with the Ministry of Finance, the National Bank, the European Commission, and the International Monetary Fund. No fundamental comments were received from these institutions.

The government defines the updated macro forecast as a guideline for business entities when planning activities for 2027.

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