The IMF has predicted Ukraine’s population if the war ends.

If Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine ends, the country’s population will stabilize at around 34 million people.

This is stated in the International Monetary Fund’s World Economic Outlook forecast for October 2025.

According to IMF estimates, Ukraine’s actual population in 2021 was 41 million, a figure that has declined significantly since the start of the war:

• 2022 – 34.5 million people,

• 2023 – 34.026 million people,

• 2024 – 33.343 million people.

In its forecast, the IMF expects a gradual resumption of demographic indicators after the end of hostilities:

• 2025 – 32.862 million people,

• 2026 – 33.383 million people,

• 2027 – 34.006 million people,

• 2028 – 33.981 million people,

• 2029 – 33.957 million people,

• 2030 – 33.936 million people.

According to the IMF’s baseline scenario, a full-scale war could end by the end of 2025, which would facilitate a partial return of Ukrainian refugees and stabilization of the population.

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