The Kremlin is preparing for new strikes on Ukraine: ISW spoke about Putin’s bet

Russia may significantly increase its attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure in the coming months, seeking to inflict maximum damage before winter sets in. The Kremlin likely hopes to exploit problems with Ukraine’s air defenses and force Ukraine to spend resources on protecting critical infrastructure.

This is stated in an analysis by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Analysts note that the continuation of energy terror is part of Russia’s broader strategy, which involves a protracted war of attrition.

According to drone and electronic warfare expert Sergei Beskrestnov, Russian forces may significantly intensify attacks on the Ukrainian energy sector in the coming weeks. According to him, the enemy may pay special attention to Kyiv’s energy facilities, trying to disrupt Ukraine’s preparations for the heating season.

At the same time, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that Russian attacks have already caused extensive damage to the Ukrainian energy system. According to him, virtually no power plants are left unscathed, and the Russian strikes have also damaged hospitals, universities, businesses, and railway facilities.

Zelenskyy urged local administrations not to delay preparations for winter and to “immediately implement plans to ensure winter resilience.” He listed protecting critical infrastructure, providing accessible shelters, and strengthening air defense capabilities to intercept ballistic missiles as key tasks.

According to ISW, one of the main problems Moscow is counting on is the shortage of interceptor missiles for Patriot systems. Limited supplies of such munitions could make it difficult to protect Ukrainian cities and energy facilities from Russian strikes.

Against this backdrop, Russia continues to ramp up production of ballistic missiles. Analysts believe the Kremlin is counting on being able to use Ukraine’s limited air defense capabilities for large-scale attacks on the energy system in the winter.

ISW believes that the energy strikes are directly related to the Kremlin’s calculation of a war of attrition. Russia seeks to simultaneously pressure Ukrainian troops on the front, destroy critical infrastructure, and create additional pressure on Ukrainian society and Kyiv’s partners.

At the same time, Moscow is not showing any willingness to abandon its maximalist demands. Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin said that Russia continues to insist on their implementation, calling it necessary to eliminate the so-called “root causes” of the war.

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