The last “Oreshnik” in Russia: ISW assessed the stock of new Russian missiles
Фото: Reuters
Russia may have only one combat-ready Oreshnik medium-range ballistic missile left after a series of launches against Ukraine. Analysts believe that Moscow may have used up most of its stockpile of such missiles.
This is stated in a report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) dated June 16, citing an investigation by the Ukrainian company Dallas Analytics.
According to analysts, after the first use of the Oreshnik against Ukraine in November 2024, Russian leader Vladimir Putin allegedly ordered the urgent launch of production of a new batch of four missiles.
Russia subsequently used three of them.
This concerns strikes on Ukraine in 2026: one missile was launched on Lviv on the night of January 9, and two more on Bila Tserkva in the Kyiv region. One of the missiles fell in the temporarily occupied territory of the Donetsk region during the launch.
ISW suggests that after these launches, Russia could have only one ready-to-use Oreshnik missile left.
“After active training on the deployment of the complex at the Kapustin Yar training ground, the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine warned on June 12, 2026, of the high probability of a new strike by Oreshnik,” the Dallas Analytics investigation states.
According to the company’s estimates, this could indicate Russia’s preparation for the use of the latest ready-made missile.
The investigation also notes that quality problems may have arisen due to haste during production.
A source from the Russian Defense Ministry said that manufacturers were allegedly able to deviate from standard control procedures in order to meet the deadlines set by the Kremlin.
Analysts also point to possible problems with the missile’s accuracy. In particular, a weak point in the Soviet GU-503 aviation gyroscope could have affected guidance, causing the missile to deviate from the target by tens of kilometers.
At the same time, ISW emphasizes that estimates of the number of Oreshnik missiles in Russia are based on open data and may change as new information becomes available.
As a reminder, Russia warned the US and partners about the possible use of the Oreshnik medium-range ballistic missile against Ukraine .
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