The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) warned of a new rise in inflation due to Russian attacks on logistics.

Russian attacks on Ukraine’s logistics infrastructure and the forced restructuring of routes could further accelerate inflation in late 2026. At the same time, the National Bank does not expect a sharp price hike.

This was stated in a column by Deputy Head of the NBU Volodymyr Lepushinsky for Interfax-Ukraine.

According to the regulator’s estimates, the impact of damage to logistics infrastructure could add approximately 0.4-0.6 percentage points to annual inflation at the end of 2026.

Lepushinsky noted that the NBU’s baseline scenario, updated in late July, did not take into account new attacks on logistics facilities and their destruction. The National Bank had previously downgraded its inflation forecast for 2026, from 9.4% to 10%, and for 2027, from 6.5% to 6.9%.

According to a NBU representative, the logistics restructuring’s price impact will be most pronounced in the fall. However, businesses will not be able to fully pass on the additional costs to consumers.

The regulator expects the impact to be gradual and partially moderated by competition between companies and weaker consumer demand.

“Damage to a train or distribution center does not automatically transfer all losses to shelf prices,” Lepushinsky emphasized.