The Tomahawk and the Carrot: When Dictators Flirt with Democracy

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Donald Trump has returned to his favorite strategy — the Tomahawk and Carrot method. He flatters and threatens Vladimir Putin in the same breath, hoping to extract concessions without commitment. Putin, a master illusionist, plays along — offering not peace, but performance. It’s a romance of convenience, rich in spectacle and poor in substance. Enough to feed Trump’s ego, but not enough to end the war — or earn him the Nobel Peace Prize he quietly dreams of.

Is this what Trump needs? Who knows. But it’s definitely not what we need.

Trump and Putin are still trading air. Even if the Tomahawks reached Ukraine — and then flew on to Russia — little would change on the battlefield or in Russia’s economy. Fifty cruise missiles equal a single Russian strike on Ukraine, adjusted for scale and geography. Still, for us, it would count as welcome political progress.

Even if Rubio and Lavrov managed to arrange a Trump–Putin meeting in Budapest, it would do little to change the course of the war or the situation on the front lines.

As long as Putin can keep selling Trump illusions and remains unwilling to end the war, the Tomahawk-and-Carrot method will fail. The only method that works with Putin is Tomahawks and sanctions. And that’s precisely what Trump refuses to use — no matter how many Western publications insist that he’s “furious” with Putin.

Because hopes and illusions win easily — when you’re eighteen. And, apparently, when you’re eighty.

And we don’t need any illusions about 500-percent tariffs on China. That’s not peacemaking — that’s Trump’s trade war with Beijing. There’s already talk of 100-percent tariffs. Whether he adds another 500, 1,000, or even 100,500 no longer matters.

Is everything lost? Not yet. The reparations loan issue is moving forward. The EU is writing a bigger check — and Putin can’t. That money will also fund American weapons, maybe even a few Tomahawks in due course. There’s progress with India too, which seems ready to replace at least part of Russian oil with American.

Just don’t expect a miracle from the White House tonight. And, most importantly, don’t let anything go wrong.

As a reminder, US President Donald Trump shared the first details of his telephone conversation with Russian dictator Vladimir Putin on the evening of October 16. The American leader stressed that the conversation was productive, as was the fact that Putin congratulated him on his great success in resolving the war in the Middle East.

Now, the US president intends to meet with the Kremlin leader in Hungary to end Russia’s war against Ukraine. Trump also confirmed that he will meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on October 17. In fact, he intends to discuss with Zelenskyy the details of his conversation with Putin.

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