Romania and Moldova Unite: A Threat or a Boon for Ukraine?

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Romania and Moldova could merge into a single country, and Romanian officials are already preparing for negotiations. Evgeni Tomac, advisor to the Romanian president on relations with Romanians in the diaspora, stated openly that Romania is ready to sit at the negotiating table at any time—provided that Chișinău itself expresses the political will to unify.

Let’s break it down—the topic is too important to ignore.

Moldova is geographically close to Odessa and the Odessa region, which is why I closely monitor all related news, read analyses, and follow local forums. I’ll share what I’ve found. All information comes from open sources.

So, what do we know today?

Leaders’ positions: Maia Sandu has already stated that she would vote “yes” in a referendum on unification. Evgeni Tomac emphasizes: “We are one people on both sides of the Prut, and partners in the EU and NATO understand this.”

Public opinion in Moldova: 38% support unification with Romania, 50% oppose it, and 10% are undecided.

Poll results in Romania: 47% support unification, 46% oppose it, and 7% are undecided.

Examples of similar unions in history:

1. The German case, 1990: Successful, but costly for the West. West Germany invested over 2 trillion euros in modernizing the East over the following 30 years.

2. The Vietnamese case, 1976: After a long and bloody war involving the United States, North Vietnam won and forcibly unified the country under the communist flag. While the country became unified, the transition to a market economy began only a decade later.

3. The Yemeni case, 1990: Yemen was divided into North and South, forming a union of two sovereign states with equal rights. Unfortunately, due to religious and political differences, the union proved unstable, ultimately leading to civil wars that continue to this day.

In Moldova, a so-called “quiet takeover” is currently underway. Instead of a single, high-profile referendum that could divide society, authorities and unionist groups are implementing a step-by-step approach:

1. Customs and border control: Joint customs operations and simplified border crossings.

2. Infrastructure: Construction of bridges across the Prut River, a single European-standard railway, shared energy networks, and abolition of roaming fees.

3. Education, culture, and media: Joint TV channels, educational grants, full synchronization of curricula, and the creation of a unified cultural space.

In Moldova, the topic of unification is promoted by “Unirea,” a political bloc comprising several Romanian-unionist organizations. Their primary goal is the full unification of the Republic of Moldova with Romania. They argue that Moldova’s only path to joining the EU and NATO is through a complete merger with Romania.

Despite its vocal rhetoric, Unirea has never achieved decisive electoral support. Pro-European voters tend to favour more moderate parties, such as Maia Sandu’s PAS, which advocate European integration without necessarily dissolving Moldova as a sovereign state.

Key political trends in Moldova:

1. Realism vs. idealism: Maia Sandu emphasizes that joining the EU as an independent state is a “more realistic goal,” as it enjoys the support of over 60% of the population.

2. Security factor: Support for unification with Romania rises precisely as the Russian threat intensifies. For many Moldovans, Unirea is less about cultural ties and more about security under NATO protection.

3. Passport factor: Over 1.5 million Moldovans hold Romanian passports, creating a de facto association at the individual level.

What about Romania?

Overall support for unification stands at 47%, slightly down from previous years due to concerns over living standards and budget deficits. Romanians understand that integrating a poorer Moldova would largely fall on their shoulders.

Romania’s GDP is nearly 21 times higher than Moldova’s. GDP per person is $22,400 in Romania compared to $8,200 in Moldova. Average salaries are €1,750 and €850, respectively, while the minimum wage is €850 in Romania and €320 in Moldova.

Main obstacles to real unification:

1. Transnistria: No NATO procedure allows a country with foreign troops and an active territorial conflict to join. A union excluding Transnistria still lacks widespread support.

2. Gagauzia: This pro-Russian autonomous region has the legal right to pursue “external self-determination” if Moldova’s sovereignty is compromised

3. Constitutional procedure: A referendum is required in both countries. In Moldova, such a vote would likely fail at present, and in Romania, the result would be uncertain.

Today, de facto unification is proceeding faster than de jure, creating conditions where, within a few years, the state border could become little more than a formality within the European Union.

Most recently, in January 2026, Maia Sandu bluntly stated that it is becoming increasingly difficult for Moldova to “survive on its own.” Despite the construction of power lines connecting Moldova to Romania, the country remains vulnerable to Russian leverage over Transnistria.

Moldova is also losing its working-age population, which is leaving en masse for the EU using Romanian passports. Meanwhile, the presence of Russian troops in Transnistria renders Moldova a “gray zone,” deterring large-scale investment.

Romania is ready to provide support but is waiting for Moldovan public opinion to reach a level of 50% or more in favour of unification.

From a regional perspective, such a union could be advantageous for Ukraine. Having Transnistria and the Gagauz autonomy on one’s border is akin to sitting on a time bomb, waiting for it to explode at any moment.

Pictured: Romanian President Nicos Dan during a meeting with Moldovan President Maia Sandu in Chișinău, June 2025. Reuters.

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