The war continues: Estonian intelligence reveals the staggering scale of the Russian arsenal

In 2025, Russian factories produced more than 7 million shells, mortars, and missiles, compared to 4.5 million in 2024.

This is stated in the Estonian intelligence report for 2026.

Since the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, ammunition production in the Russian Federation has increased 17-fold, in particular due to the construction of new factories.

The production structure in 2025 looked like this:

howitzer ammunition (122 mm, 152 mm, 203 mm) – 3.4 million;

mortar shells (120 mm, 240 mm) – 2.3 million;

ammunition for tanks and infantry fighting vehicles – 0.8 million;

missiles for MLRS – 0.5 million.

In addition to its own production, Russia is actively importing ammunition. Since 2023, Moscow has received 5-7 million shells from Iran and North Korea. According to intelligence, shells from the DPRK accounted for up to half of all ammunition fired by Russia on Ukraine in the second half of 2025.

The purchase of these shells cost the Putin regime about 1 trillion rubles (10.6 billion euros) in 2025. At the same time, the cost price remains low: for example, a 152 mm shell costs less than 100 thousand rubles (approximately 1,050 euros), which is significantly cheaper than Western 155 mm counterparts.

“We see that Russia is setting long-term operational goals in its war against Ukraine. This confirms that the recent intensification of the rhetoric of peace negotiations is just a tactic to buy time. Moscow has no intention of ending the war in Ukraine until its goals are achieved or until favorable conditions arise for this,” Estonian intelligence emphasized.

Russia’s military reform will strengthen the capabilities of its armed forces in the coming years. To counter this, Estonia and NATO must continue to invest in defense.

As a reminder, Russia has begun modernizing the Petrozavodsk garrison of the military base in Karelia near the border with Finland. Preparations are being made on the territory of the facility to accommodate a significantly larger number of troops.

As reported, Russia is actively forming the psychological and informational basis for a possible future war against NATO.

By the way, Russia has tripled the production of ballistic missiles for the Iskander-M operational-tactical complexes thanks to the supply of components from China. This has allowed Moscow to resume and scale up military production despite Western sanctions.

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