The World Bank has sharply downgraded its forecast for Ukraine’s GDP growth in 2027.

The World Bank has significantly downgraded its forecast for Ukraine’s economic growth in 2027. One reason for this is the new assumption that active hostilities will continue throughout next year.

This is stated in the World Bank’s report “Economic Outlook for Europe and Central Asia”.

According to the updated forecast, Ukraine’s GDP will grow by only 1.5% in 2027. The preliminary estimate projected growth of 4%.

The World Bank noted that it had previously expected the war to end by the end of 2026. Now, the baseline forecast assumes active hostilities will continue throughout 2027.

In 2026, the bank estimates that the Ukrainian economy will grow by 1.2%. This will be the slowest growth rate in the past four years. Meanwhile, the World Bank expects growth to accelerate to 3% in 2028.

Labor shortages and high energy costs are among the main factors holding back Ukraine’s economy. Damage to production facilities, ports, warehouses, and transport infrastructure adds further pressure, limiting the country’s export capacity.

Exports are also negatively impacted by more difficult access to EU markets and the deteriorating situation in the Black Sea.

As of early September, Ukraine harvested 32 million tons of grain—13% more than in the same period in 2025. At the same time, grain exports decreased by 14% year-on-year.

In August, Ukrainian agricultural exports totaled 1.5 million tons, down 60% from the previous year. Meanwhile, shipment volumes through Black Sea ports fell by 95%.

The World Bank cites the availability of external financing as a separate risk for the economy in 2027. Ukraine’s significant financial needs remain uncovered, and negotiations with international partners on further support are ongoing.