“Too few to change the game”: Only 20–50 Tomahawks may be transferred to Ukraine

The transfer of Tomahawk cruise missiles to Ukraine, currently under consideration in Washington, is unlikely to have a significant impact on the course of the war. Even if the decision is approved, it would only involve 20-50 weapons, which is a fairly limited resource.

This was reported by Stacey Pettyjohn, director of the defense program at the Center for a New American Security, in a comment to the Financial Times.

“Even if several dozen Tomahawks are transferred to Ukraine, this is unlikely to change the overall dynamics of the conflict. They can be used for individual targets in combination with drones and other long-range weapons, but the number of potential strikes will remain too small for a deep and prolonged campaign against Russia,” the expert noted.

At the same time, a Ukrainian representative, speaking to reporters on condition of anonymity, confirmed that the process of transferring the missiles is at a high level of political discussion, and former President Donald Trump “has never been this close to making a decision.”

However, he said, the White House has not yet approved a final decision on the supply.

Mark Kansian, a former Pentagon adviser who now works at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, also commented on the situation. He recalled that the US currently has about 4,150 Tomahawk missiles in its arsenal.

However, the Pentagon has ordered only about 200 new missiles since 2022, some of which — more than 120 — have already been used in exercises. According to analysts, the draft US budget for 2026 provides funding for only 57 new Tomahawks.

Therefore, despite the technical possibility of transferring long-range missiles to Ukraine, the limited stock and US financial policy regarding procurement call into question the ability to provide significant and sustained support in this direction.

As a reminder, the spokesman for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, Heorhiy Tykhyi, reported that Ukraine and the United States are negotiating and “working to agree on all these details” regarding the possible provision of Tomahawk cruise missiles – there is currently no categorical refusal, but a detailed and active discussion about technical and organizational nuances is ongoing.

As reported, US President Donald Trump said that he may inform Vladimir Putin about the possibility of transferring Tomahawk cruise missiles to Ukraine if the war is not resolved soon . The supply of such weapons is being considered in response to Ukraine’s needs and was discussed in a conversation with President Volodymyr Zelensky.

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