“True luck”: South Korea says North Korea’s participation in the war in Ukraine deterred Pyongyang from escalating against Seoul

South Korea stated that the participation of the North Korean military in the Russian war against Ukraine could have deterred Pyongyang from a military response to Seoul’s provocations in 2024.

This is reported by CNN .

South Korean prosecutors this week released some of the correspondence and notes of former officials who carried out orders from then-President Yun Seok-yeol to organize drone flights into central Pyongyang. Journalists noted that the aim of the operation was to provoke North Korea into a response and create the conditions for the introduction of martial law.

The recordings found on the phone of former South Korean Defense Ministry counterintelligence chief Yeo In-hyeon discussed the need to create an “unstable situation” and bring Pyongyang to a state where “it will have no choice but to respond.” Potential targets for provocations included Pyongyang, two nuclear facilities, Kim Jong-un’s summer residences, the Wonsan tourist area, and Samjiyon.

Journalists reported that these materials also contained references to desired consequences, from a “national security crisis” to a “Noah’s Flood.”

MP Kim Byung-ju expressed surprise that North Korea limited itself to rhetorical threats in 2024. He suggested that this could be due to the participation of North Korean military personnel in the Russian war against Ukraine, as Pyongyang “might not have the resources to maintain two fronts.”

“Looking back, we can say that it was a real stroke of luck for South Korea that North Korea refrained from any military provocations… If it had decided to respond with military action, it could have escalated into a local conflict,” the MP said.

South Korean intelligence previously reported that North Korea had sent thousands of workers to Russia, some of whom were stationed near the border with Ukraine. Also, on November 14, Ukrainian intelligence reported that Russia plans to recruit twelve thousand North Korean workers to work in the Alabuga separate economic zone in Tatarstan by the end of 2025.

By the way, units of the North Korean armed forces have been spotted coordinating actions with Russian troops near the Ukrainian border. According to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, North Korean servicemen are participating in reconnaissance and fire control of Ukrainian positions in the Sumy region .

As a reminder, the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported that North Korean troops are not participating in combat operations in the Sumy region, but instead are performing support tasks in the Kursk region of Russia . At the same time, Russian military personnel complain that North Koreans are fed better than themselves, and vacations for Russians are prohibited until the “capture of Sumy.”

As reported, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un personally visited the testing of new unmanned aerial vehicles at the Unmanned Aircraft Technology Association . Among the models demonstrated were heavy bomber drones that drop ammunition, as well as tactical strike drones of the Kumsong series.

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