Two scenarios from Putin: what the war will be like next

Russia is currently considering two main scenarios for further action, and neither of them foresees de-escalation in the coming months. First of all, everything will depend on the results of the US Senate elections and how strong Donald Trump’s position remains.

The first scenario is that Trump retains control of the Senate.

In this case, the so-called Dmitriev plan remains the basic one for Putin. It provides that the US will receive the exclusive role of intermediary in the trade of sanctioned goods and will begin to pressure the European Union to weaken or lift sanctions against Russia.

In return, Europe should receive certain security guarantees. At the same time, Russia will continue to intensify strikes on Ukraine and carry out hybrid attacks against EU countries.

Under this scenario, Putin expects to reach productive negotiations in March-May.

The second scenario is that Trump loses control of the Senate and faces the threat of impeachment.

In this case, the Kremlin may abandon Dmitriev’s plan. Instead, Putin will rely on large-scale intimidation of Europe.

Moscow probably expects that increased strikes on Ukraine, hybrid attacks against the EU, and changes in the political situation in certain European countries, primarily in France, will weaken European unity.

The goal is to break up the coalition of countries that financially support Ukraine and force the European Union to sit at the negotiating table to lift sanctions.

And here Putin is also focusing on March-May. Until then, the probability of direct Russian military aggression against one of the European countries remains low.

A separate direction is Iran.

In parallel, Russia may try to play the Iranian card and use its participation in resolving the situation around Iran as a bargaining chip with the US regarding Ukraine.

That is why Moscow is trying to get more involved in the negotiations on Iran. However, its main goal may not be so much to resolve the conflict as to stall for time.

After all, stabilizing the situation around Iran could lead to a decline in world oil prices, which is not beneficial to Russia. In this context, it is also important to monitor the formation of a new Israeli government.

Another problem for the Kremlin is a misconception about the position of the US and China.

Putin seems convinced that Washington and Beijing are willing to put up with his methods of pressuring Europe.

Both the US and China may indeed be interested in an economically and politically weaker Europe. But they need a European Union with which they can trade and make money.

Putin is trying to achieve two opposing goals at the same time: to gain economic benefits from the EU and at the same time to weaken or even destroy it.

This could be explained by a desire to raise the stakes before negotiations. However, the Kremlin’s demands to return NATO to its 1990s borders remain unacceptable to Western countries.

At the same time, it should not be ruled out that European states will still hold talks with Russia. Europe is already thinking about how to get out of the current situation, and the issue of a possible easing of sanctions in one format or another may also be on the negotiating table.

Putin’s main calculation is Europe’s weakness.

The Kremlin assumes that European countries will not be able to organize serious resistance to its initiatives.

In fact, for the past five years, Russian strategy has been based on the belief that Moscow can act with near impunity. And if it encounters resistance, it simply pauses and waits for circumstances to change in its favor.

However, such a strategy does not take into account many factors that may affect the further development of events.

Therefore, although Putin is now counting on negotiations in the spring, the real situation may make significant adjustments to the Kremlin’s plans.

Also follow “Pryamim” on Facebook , X , Telegram , and Instagram.

• The materials published in the “OPINIONS” section reflect the opinion of the author of the publication, who bears full responsibility for the veracity of the information.
• The editorial staff of prm.ua may not share the opinions expressed in the author’s material.
• The owner of the webpage in the “OPINIONS” section is the author of the publication.