Ukraine faces shortage of missiles for Patriot and F-16: what is the alternative?

This is what The Economist writes about.

As the publication notes, the Ukrainian military has almost exhausted its stock of PAC-3 missiles for Patriot. At the same time, the F-16 is increasingly experiencing a shortage of AIM-120 and AIM-9 missiles, which are used to intercept air targets.

The US’s ability to significantly replenish these stocks is currently limited. In particular, American weapons stocks have been reduced due to Washington’s war with Iran.

Against this backdrop, it is becoming more difficult for Ukraine to counter Russian ballistic strikes. According to The Economist, the Russian military-industrial complex produces up to 100 ballistic missiles per month. Of these, about 60 are Iskander-M, and another 40 are RM-48U.

Russia has also launched mass production of the Geran-4 and Geran-5 high-speed strike drones. According to the publication, Russian industry produces about 3,000 of these drones every month.

Thanks to Chinese-made turbojet engines and components manufactured in the Russian Federation, these drones can reach speeds of up to 600 km/h.

Along with the larger Banderol UAVs, the new Russian drones increasingly resemble cheap cruise missiles. The shortage of AIM-120 and AIM-9 missiles makes them more difficult to destroy with an F-16.

Ukrainian engineers are trying to partially solve the problem with their own interceptor drones.

European complexes can become an alternative to Patriot

One of the temporary solutions to strengthen Ukrainian air defense could be European SAMP/T complexes. It is expected that by the end of 2026, Ukraine will receive several batteries of the previous version of the Franco-Italian system, equipped with Aster missiles.

In 2027, the partners plan to transfer eight more modern SAMP/T NG complexes to Kyiv.

The Economist notes that the Aster missiles differ from the PAC-3 in the principle of hitting the target: they explode next to the enemy missile, while the PAC-3 destroys the target with a direct hit. At the same time, French military sources claim that the Aster may surpass the Patriot in some characteristics. Its cost is also lower than the PAC-3.

In addition, with the consent of NATO countries, Ukraine may receive part of the 200 PAC-2 missiles, the production of which is planned to be established in Germany under license every year.

Another long-term solution could be the development of a new missile defense system within the framework of the European Freyja project.