Ukraine’s economic growth has slowed: new EBRD forecast

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has revised its forecast for Ukraine’s real GDP growth for 2026, lowering it to 2.2% due to the consequences of the war.

Forbes reports this with reference to the EBRDreport “Regional Economic Prospects”, published on June 3.

In February, the EBRD forecasted Ukrainian economic growth at 2.5%, but this estimate has now been revised downward. At the same time, Ukraine maintains macroeconomic stability thanks to international support.

The bank emphasizes that the prospects of the Ukrainian economy will continue to depend on the course of hostilities and the amount of financial assistance from international partners.

Among the main risks, experts name the energy crisis, in particular the possible consequences of the aggravation of the situation in the Middle East, which could affect Ukraine’s energy security.

Slow GDP growth in 2025 at 1.8% and weak economic dynamics in early 2026 are explained by labor shortages, Russian strikes on energy infrastructure, and disruptions in logistics and supply.

The report also notes that inflationary pressures are picking up again after a period of slowdown. One reason is rising global energy prices, which are raising business and household spending and contributing to an acceleration in inflation.

The significant burden on the state budget is highlighted separately. Ukraine’s budget deficit, excluding grants, reached 23.6% of GDP in 2025 and is projected to remain high — about 19.3% of GDP in 2026.

The main items of state budget expenditure remain defense and social needs, which are largely financed by foreign aid.

Over €110 billion in international support in 2026–2027 is expected to help maintain Ukraine’s macro-financial stability.

At the same time, the forecast for 2027 remained unchanged – GDP growth at 4%, provided that the intensity of hostilities decreases and the economy begins to recover actively.

The EBRD recalled that since the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022, the bank has invested about 10 billion euros in Ukraine, remaining the country’s largest institutional investor.

Earlier, “Pryamiy” reported that Ukraine will not receive the first tranche of financial assistance from the European Union next week. The funds are not expected to arrive before the beginning of June.

Also, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy submitted to the Verkhovna Rada a bill on the ratification of an agreement with the European Union, which provides for the possibility of Ukraine attracting up to 90 billion euros in financial assistance in 2026–2027.

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