Ukraine seized the initiative on the front and nullified Russia’s territorial gains – ISW

In 2026, Ukrainian troops seized the initiative on the front, nearly eliminating the Russian army’s territorial gains and conducting a series of successful counteroffensive operations.

This is stated in a report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

According to analysts, at the end of 2025 and throughout 2026, Ukrainian forces were able to effectively resist a Russian offensive initiative for the first time since the Kursk offensive operation in August 2024.

Beginning in March, the Russian troops’ net territorial gains virtually disappeared. At the same time, the Ukrainian Armed Forces conducted counteroffensive operations in the Kupyansk, Oleksandrivsk, and Limansk directions.

These actions, according to ISW, allowed the Ukrainian military to thwart a number of plans by the Russian command.

In particular, the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ counteroffensive halted Russian forces’ attempts to advance into the Dnipropetrovsk region. In the Kupyansk sector, Ukrainian forces regained lost positions in the city and its environs and repelled further Russian attempts to recapture them.

In addition, Ukrainian troops eliminated a significant Russian presence that posed a threat to the northern flank of Slavyansk and the entire Donetsk defensive belt.

Where the Russians have made progress

Despite losing the overall initiative, Russian forces continue to achieve localized successes. In particular, ISW is recording limited but significant Russian advances in and around Konstantinovka.

Russian forces have also advanced east of Slovyansk and Kramatorsk. However, they are having to make significant efforts in these areas to maintain the momentum of the advance.

Analysts note that a similar situation is observed on other sections of the front. Therefore, the struggle for the initiative remains dynamic.

Russian command may demand mobilization

Amid problems with advancement, Russian commanders, according to ISW, are pressuring Vladimir Putin to carry out a large-scale mobilization.

The likely goal of such a decision is to restore the Russian army’s ability to seize territory and regain the offensive initiative.

At the same time, it remains unknown to what extent a new wave of mobilization could change the situation on the battlefield, if the Kremlin decides to carry it out.