Ukraine’s Population Continues to Shrink: Institute of Demography Updates Estimate
Елла Лібанова — директорка Інституту демографії імені Михайла Птухи НАН України
By mid-2026, about 28.5 million people will live in Ukraine’s controlled territory. This is 500,000 fewer than the previous estimate. The main reason for the population decline is Ukrainians emigrating abroad.
This is reported by the Telegraph.
The Mykhailo Ptukha Institute of Demography of the NAS of Ukraine first publicly presented new calculations through its director, Ella Libanova.
According to the demographer, the calculations were completed only a few days ago. She emphasized that migration, unlike human losses due to death, leaves room for Ukrainians to return home.
“Why do I say thank God? Because, no matter what, these people remained alive. If we return them to Ukraine, great. We won’t return them, but they are Ukrainians; they will live, even abroad. We will not return those who died,” Libanova said.
How was Ukraine’s population counted?
According to a preliminary joint estimate by the State Statistics Service and the Institute of Demography, about 29 million people lived in the government-controlled territory of Ukraine in July 2026. The error in these calculations could be about 300,000.
To estimate the population, experts used data from three mobile operators and compared it with information from state registers. The methodology aimed to account for people actually in the controlled territory, including internally displaced persons.
Libanova fears a new wave of migration after the war.
The demographer is particularly concerned about men leaving abroad after the war ends and martial law is lifted. In her view, much will depend on whether Ukraine can offer them decent work and an acceptable salary, especially after they return from the front.
“When men get the opportunity to leave, when they return from the front, we will not be able to offer them a job that they will consider worthy and a salary that they will consider acceptable. And then the question arises: where will Ukrainian families reunite—in Ukraine or abroad?” Libanova noted.
She suggests that after the fighting ends, a new wave of migration may begin, related to families’ decisions about where they will live together.
“I am very afraid that there will be a second, so-called male migration wave. This is quite likely. And it depends mainly, of course, on our military; there is no doubt about it, but also on all of us,” the demographer emphasized.
Thus, the prospects for the return of Ukrainians and the preservation of the population will depend not only on the end of the war but also on living conditions, employment opportunities, and prospects for families in Ukraine.
Recall that according to data from CIA reports on mortality and fertility rates in the world, Ukraine has become the country with the highest mortality rate in the world and the lowest fertility rate.
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