Up to $150 million daily: the jump in oil prices due to the war in Iran has significantly increased Russia’s revenues

Amid the escalating conflict over Iran and disruptions to oil supplies through the Strait of Hormuz, Russian budget revenues have increased sharply. Analysts estimate that additional revenues could reach up to $150 million per day.

This is reported by the Financial Times .

Analysts say the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and a sharp rise in global oil prices have significantly affected Russia’s energy export revenues. This comes against the backdrop of disruptions in oil supplies from the Persian Gulf, forcing major energy consumers to look for alternative sources.

According to analysts, during the first 12 days of the war between the US, Israel and Iran alone, the Russian budget received an additional $1.3 to $1.9 billion. By the end of March, this amount could increase to $5 billion.

Changes also occurred in the price of Russian oil. While in February the price of Urals oil was around $52 per barrel, it later rose to $70–80 per barrel.

Analysts also note that in some cases, Russian oil is being sold without significant discounts. In particular, in India, it is being sold at a premium to the benchmark Brent grade, while Moscow previously offered significant discounts due to sanctions.

In addition, the largest importers of Russian oil are increasing purchases. According to analysts, Russian oil imports:

• in India it increased by 50%;
• in China increased by 22%.

Against this backdrop, Russian President Vladimir Putin has said that energy exports to Europe could resume. Analysts say Russia is also considering increasing production, preparing additional capacity to produce 400,000 barrels of oil per day.

Analysts note that Russia’s future revenues will largely depend on the duration of the conflict in the Middle East and the situation with the supply of energy resources on the world market.

It is worth adding that the US has eased sanctions for 30 days and allowed the purchase of Russian oil and petroleum products that are already being transported by sea. This only concerns raw materials that are on tankers en route.

As a reminder, global oil prices have exceeded $100 per barrel amid the worsening situation in the Middle East. This happened for the first time since 2022, and investors are taking into account the risks of prolonged disruptions in energy supplies.

As reported, Iran’s threats to ships in the Strait of Hormuz have caused a sharp increase in world oil prices and may reverse the trend of declining Russian oil revenues.

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