US Congressional Elections: What Scenarios Are Bookmakers Considering?

In the run-up to the US midterm elections on November 3, 2026, Americans will elect all 435 members of the House of Representatives and 35 senators. Betting platforms and prediction markets allow you to track expectations about which party will control both houses of Congress.

According to Polymarket , as of October 13, the probability of Democrats gaining control of the House of Representatives was 91% and the probability of Democrats gaining control of the Senate was 63%. Trading volume on these forecasts reached approximately $15 million and $6 million, respectively.

On Kalshi , according to Covers as of October 12, the Democrats’ chances of gaining control of the House of Representatives were estimated at 89% and the Senate at 64%.

The PredictIt platform also publishes forecasts for political events in the United States. As of October 1, contracts for Democrats to gain control of the Senate were trading at 62 cents, while contracts for Republicans to gain control of both houses of Congress were trading at 39 cents. The contract for Democrats to gain control of both houses of Congress was trading at 63 cents. The market volume for the Senate was about 540,000 contracts.

Manifold Markets has a 94% chance of Democrats taking control of the House of Representatives and a 66% chance of the Senate. The platform uses virtual currency for forecasting.

On Limitless , the scenario in which Democrats would gain control of both houses of Congress was estimated at approximately 63.5%. The probability that Democrats would control the House of Representatives and Republicans the Senate was 27.5%. The probability that Republicans would retain control of both houses was estimated at 8.5%. Trading volume in this market was about $123.

Opinion also has a market for the distribution of control of Congress, with a total trading volume exceeding $14.7 million.

Betting platforms also publish odds on the election results. According to Betfair Exchange , the odds for Democrats to gain control of the House of Representatives were around 1.12, and for the Senate at 1.65. Betting on the distribution of control between the parties is also available at Sportingbet and bwin.

Performance across platforms may vary, as it depends on participant activity, demand, and the rules of the specific market. Contract prices reflect market expectations but do not guarantee voting results.

Also follow “Pryamim” on Facebook , X , Telegram , and Instagram.