War as a strategy: why the Kremlin disrupts negotiations and fears peace
фото: Reuters
Russian dictator Vladimir Putin does not want to sit down at the negotiating table with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. And it is not just an ideological enmity. The very fact of such a meeting would be a strategic failure for the Kremlin – it would emphasize what Russia is trying to hide with all its might: Ukraine has survived.
As Politico notes , the Russian government is actively trying to portray Zelensky as an “illegitimate” head of state. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov recently reiterated this thesis, emphasizing that Putin “cannot” make any agreements with the current president of Ukraine.
But this is just the tip of the iceberg. The Kremlin’s real game is much more complex and cynical: by manipulating and delaying the peace process, Putin is simultaneously trying not to anger his potential ally, Donald Trump. Russia is deliberately creating the illusion of a negotiation process, putting forward ever new conditions and “explanations” in order to avoid pressure from the United States.
Although Trump has threatened “severe consequences” if Moscow does not show real interest in ending the war, the details of these threats remain vague. However, experts suggest that they refer to possible secondary sanctions – in particular, against countries that continue to trade with Russia, especially in the energy sector.
This would not destroy the Russian economy instantly, but it would be a serious blow, given the financial instability, the threat of recession, and the chronic budget deficit, which has already exceeded the planned figures.
At the same time, for Putin himself, war is a profitable tool. It allows him to maintain an atmosphere of fear within the country, justify repression, and strengthen the authoritarian vertical. As sociologist Ella Paneya from the New Eurasian Strategies Centre, a sharp end to the war, could unbalance the system: a struggle for scarce resources would begin, which would lead to internal conflicts within the Russian Federation itself.
Moreover, the prolonged war is taking its toll on Europe, both economically and politically. The Kremlin is counting on Western governments to grow tired of the conflict, to see differences of opinion emerge, and to see transatlantic unity fray. This scenario is particularly advantageous for Putin’s ally, Chinese leader Xi Jinping, who has made no secret of his interest in Taiwan.
On the other hand, Ukraine is facing a shortage of resources, especially manpower. A possible breakthrough on the front that cannot be contained could change the course of the war. The Kremlin is betting on this: it hopes to gain new territories, force the West to make concessions on the issue of “security guarantees” (which in reality will guarantee nothing), and in the long term, to achieve a limitation on the size of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Putin sees the ideal Ukraine as a weakened, disarmed, and dependent state — powerless to resist new aggression. In this regard, his position was voiced by former Trump adviser on Russia Fiona Hill: “He wants a neutered Ukraine.” But for now, the Kremlin is confusing American officials with the details, appealing to the “historical reasons for the war,” dragging out negotiations — and at the same time accusing Kyiv of a lack of progress.
This is part of a grand geopolitical game in which war is not a failure, but a tool. And Putin certainly has no intention of stopping it just yet.
As a reminder, US President Donald Trump is initiating direct talks between Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelensky, despite the Russian dictator openly disparaging the Ukrainian leader and refusing to mention his name. The Kremlin considers Zelensky “illegitimate” and Russian propagandists regularly discredit him in the public space.
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